建信期货棉花日报-20260326

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: March 26, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton closed up in a volatile manner. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 16,711 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 2025/26 machine-picked cotton of grade 31 in southern Xinjiang was mostly quoted at CF05 + 1150 or above, and the higher quotes in northern Xinjiang were above 1400, with the mainstream negotiable price between 1300 and 1400, for pick-up within Xinjiang [7]. - The trading of pure cotton yarn was average. Spinning mills mainly executed previous orders, with few new orders, and inventory increased. Downstream weavers and traders were cautious, mainly making rigid purchases. Prices were stable to weak, the quantity of high-priced spot goods decreased, some traders offered discounts for promotion, and yarn mills' quotes remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton grey fabric market became weaker, prices were flexible and negotiable depending on the volume. Garment orders were approaching the end, and it was difficult to connect subsequent orders. Export orders remained sluggish, and it was expected that the improvement of subsequent orders would be limited [7]. - In the international market, as of the week ending March 17, according to CFTC, the non-commercial long positions of funds in US cotton futures increased for the fourth consecutive week, and the net long positions turned positive. The drought level in the main cotton-producing areas of the US, especially Texas, remained at a relatively high level in recent years, providing support for the external market. In the domestic market, the Xinjiang Climate Center (Agricultural Meteorological Observatory) issued a forecast for the suitable sowing period of cotton in southern Xinjiang in 2026. Most cotton-growing areas in southern Xinjiang had an earlier suitable sowing period than usual and close to that of last year. The western part of Hotan Prefecture and the northern part of Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture would start sowing in early April, and the suitable sowing period for most other areas in southern Xinjiang was from early to mid-April. Recently, new orders and customer inquiries in the downstream of the industry decreased significantly compared with the beginning of "Golden March". Some spinning mills had no production plans for combed high-count yarn, and inventory increased. In the short term, the futures market closed up with reduced positions, lacking new drivers, and was in a volatile adjustment. Attention should be paid to the expectations and actual planting situation of new cotton in the 2026/27 season [8]. Operation Suggestions - Short-term market is in a volatile adjustment, pay attention to the expectations and actual planting situation of new cotton in the 2026/27 season [8] Group 3: Industry News - The Xinjiang Climate Center (Agricultural Meteorological Observatory) issued a forecast for the suitable sowing period of cotton in southern Xinjiang in 2026. In Aksu region, Kucha City, Shaya County, and Alar City could start sowing on March 25, with the suitable sowing period from April 1 to 15. In Kashgar region, Bachu County and Maigaiti County would start sowing on March 27, with the suitable sowing period from April 3 to 18. In Hotan region, Moyu County, Hotan City, Lop County, and Cele County would start sowing on March 29, with the suitable sowing period from April 3 to 10 [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, CF1 - 5 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][20][28][30]