瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260326

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has returned to the inventory accumulation rhythm, and it is expected that the general trade inventory in Qingdao may continue to accumulate slightly in the short term [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly last week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The operating rates are expected to remain high at the end of the quarter, but individual enterprises may adjust production schedules flexibly [2]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,850, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,460 yuan/ton, and that of the 20 - number rubber is 13,635 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 0 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton [2]. - The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is - 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber decreased by 5,068 hands to 102,159 hands, and that of the 20 - number rubber decreased by 4,368 hands to 51,030 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 704 to - 30,970, and that of the 20 - number rubber is - 213 [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125,410 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber are 43,949 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,700 yuan/ton, and that of Vietnamese 3L is 16,300 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,005 US dollars/ton, and that of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,000 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,520 yuan/ton, and that of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,470 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, and that of butadiene BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 13.6 US dollars/ton, and that of STR20 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased by 2.95 tons, and that of mixed rubber decreased by 10.31 tons to 13.96 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.72%, and that of semi - steel tires is 78.25% [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong decreased by 2.82 days to 41.09 days, and those of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.75 days to 44.59 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires decreased by 458,000 pieces to 813,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.507 million pieces to 3.461 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset decreased by 0.01%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.06% to 19.39% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options decreased by 0.77% to 31.4%, and that of at - the - money put options decreased by 0.77% to 31.41% [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 vehicles, a decrease of nearly 30% from January 2025 and about 8% from the same period last year. The cumulative sales volume from January to February exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [2]. - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.18% [2]. - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2].