瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260326

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol port inventory continues to decline. Due to domestic impact and resistance to absolute high prices, the apparent demand for imports has weakened significantly, and the volume of foreign ships arriving at ports remains low. It is expected that the methanol inventory at ports may continue to decline next week, and the extent of de - stocking depends on the change in pick - up volume. [2] - The domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate has increased month - on - month, and the loads of inland and port enterprises have been adjusted upwards to varying degrees. With the high - start operation of enterprises that have recently increased their loads, the MTO industry's start - up rate is expected to increase to over 90% next week. [2] - There is still uncertainty in the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, and the short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 3,202 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 113 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 245 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton week - on - week. [2] - The trading volume of the main methanol contract is 620,704 lots, up 78,378 lots week - on - week. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 1,822 lots, with an increase of 1,947 lots week - on - week. [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 7,981, with an increase of 340 week - on - week. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 3,250 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price in Inner Mongolia is 2,375 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton week - on - week. [2] - The price spread between East China and Northwest China is 595 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 48 yuan/ton, up 167 yuan/ton week - on - week. [2] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 380 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars/ton week - on - week; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 590 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton week - on - week. [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 441 euros/ton, up 2 euros/ton week - on - week. The price spread between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 210 US dollars/ton, down 56 US dollars/ton week - on - week. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 2.98 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.08 US dollars week - on - week. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 86.05 tons, down 8.47 tons week - on - week; the inventory at South China ports is 29.5 tons, down 2.15 tons week - on - week. [2] - The import profit of methanol is - 126.29 yuan/ton, up 7.49 yuan/ton week - on - week. The monthly import volume is 88.47 tons, down 19.92 tons month - on - month. [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 435,000 tons, down 50,400 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 92.87%, up 2.72 percentage points week - on - week. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.43%, up 4.83 percentage points week - on - week; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.49%, up 1.36 percentage points week - on - week. [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 85.4%, unchanged week - on - week; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.51%, up 0.57 percentage points week - on - week. [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 84.08%, unchanged week - on - week. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1,286 yuan/ton, down 194 yuan/ton week - on - week. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 81.24%, down 0.69 percentage points week - on - week; the 40 - day historical volatility is 62.21%, up 0.35 percentage points week - on - week. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 74.51%, up 0.14 percentage points week - on - week; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 74.52%, up 0.14 percentage points week - on - week. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of March 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 435,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,400 tons or 10.39%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 283,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,600 tons or 1.64%. [2] - As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.1555 million tons, a decrease of 106,200 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 84,700 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 21,500 tons. [2] - Recently, the production loss of methanol due to maintenance and production reduction in China is less than the output increase from the resumption of production, resulting in an overall increase in production. This week, inland enterprises' inventories decreased. [2] - As of March 26, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 86.86%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%. The operating rate of the domestic MTO industry has increased, and the loads of inland and port enterprises have been adjusted upwards to varying degrees. [2]