瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Crude oil and butadiene supplies are tight, raw material prices have risen significantly, and the production losses of butadiene rubber have deepened, leading to some plants reducing production or shutting down. The Zhejiang Transfar butadiene rubber plant is undergoing scheduled maintenance, resulting in a decline in supply. It is expected that the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises will continue to decrease [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises rebounded slightly last week. The semi - steel tire enterprises are focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders, with tight domestic sales supply, and the capacity utilization rate remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly. The price increase has led to concentrated shipments and obvious shortages, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate. At the end of the quarter, the operating rates of some enterprises are expected to remain high, but there may be flexible production scheduling adjustments [2]. - Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the short - term synthetic rubber futures prices are expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 17,975 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 255 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 116,947, with a week - on - week increase of 1,942 [2]. - The synthetic rubber 5 - 6 spread is 290 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 215 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 24,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 670 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 17,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 17,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350 yuan/ton [2]. - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 17,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 17,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 345 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 102.22 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.27 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 90.32 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.03 US dollars/barrel [2]. - Naphtha CFR Japan is 997.75 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 90.75 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 1400 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 US dollars/ton [2]. - The CFR China price of butadiene is 2350 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 18,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.71%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.99 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 27,600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.52 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 140,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 65.58%, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.4 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 2500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 204 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 42,600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,800 tons [2]. - The weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 34,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,350 tons; the weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 8,610 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 470 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 41.09 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.59 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75 days [2]. - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy sources), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 units in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 25, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.58% [2].