每日商品期市纵览-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is significantly affected by the Middle - East situation, with geopolitical factors causing uncertainties and volatility in various commodity markets [2][3][4] - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and short - term market trends are mainly in a state of shock adjustment Summary by Category Financial Futures - Stock Index: The Middle - East situation brings uncertainties, market sentiment recovers slowly, the downside space is limited, and it mainly shows shock adjustment in the short term [2] - Treasury Bonds: The Middle - East situation eases temporarily, trading power in the bond market is insufficient, and it maintains a narrow - range shock pattern in the short term [2] Shipping - Container Shipping on the European Line: Geopolitical premiums continue to decline, the market turns to the off - season supply - demand fundamentals, the new main contract is under pressure to shock, and it maintains a weak pattern in the short term [3] Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum and Palladium: The price fluctuates weakly in the short term, and there is still value for medium - to - long - term layout [4] - Gold and Silver: Prices maintain shock fluctuations, the short - term rebound is limited, and they mainly show low - level shocks [5] - Copper: The pressure level moves up, the far - month contract price gradually recovers, and the high - volatility state continues [5] - Aluminum: It shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and the price continues to shock [6] - Alumina: The price fluctuates around 3000 yuan, and the trend is mainly shock adjustment [6] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It has a strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum, and there is strong support below [7] - Zinc: It mainly follows the sector to shock, and attention should be paid to the inventory turning point at low prices [8] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Policy disturbances strengthen the price bottom, and supply - demand and policies jointly drive the market [8] - Tin: The price continues to rebound, and it is regarded as a shock in the short term [9] - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is loose, the demand is stable, and the market is jointly dominated by supply - demand fundamentals and capital sentiment [9] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The core contradiction is supply - demand imbalance, and the market is dominated by high inventory and insufficient demand [10][11] - Lead: The price is expected to shock strongly in the future [11] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The cost support is strong, but the upward space is limited, and real - estate and infrastructure policies support the demand [12] - Iron Ore: The price is supported by cost and tight spot, but is suppressed by medium - to - long - term demand and supply increase expectations [12] - Coking Coal and Coke: They follow the energy expectations to fluctuate, and it is difficult to rise continuously beyond the fundamentals [13] - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: The cost support at the bottom gradually strengthens, and attention should be paid to the impact of hurricanes on the mining area [14][15] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The short - term is disturbed by news, and the fluctuation range converges [16] - Fuel Oil: The market weakens in stages, but the overall supply - tight logic remains unchanged [16] - Asphalt: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are the core factors, overriding its own fundamentals [17] - Pure Benzene - Styrene: The short - term shocks are strong, focusing on the closure duration of the strait and supply reduction [17] - LPG: It fluctuates in the short term with multiple factors intertwined [18] - PP Propylene: The price is difficult to return to the pre - event level, and it is mainly in a wait - and - see state in the short term [18] - Plastic: It shows a weak shock in the short term, and the supply - demand and geopolitical factors jointly act [19] - Rubber: The synthetic rubber rises and then falls, the natural rubber shocks and stabilizes, and it is expected to shock and stabilize in the medium - to - long - term [19] - Soda Ash: The supply pressure is continuous, and the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high [20][21] - Glass: The supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit its upward space, and the demand needs to be verified [21] - Caustic Soda: The supply pressure eases, the demand support is stable, and the price maintains a range - shock pattern [22] Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The price is at a low - level shock, and the short - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with insufficient rebound power [23] - Oilseeds: The short - term spot price is firm, but the medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is repaired [24][25] - Oils and Fats: The short - term is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to the progress of US - Iran negotiations [25] - Cotton: The price has fallen, but there is still support below, and attention should be paid to US cotton export [25] - Sugar: The price maintains a shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the recovery of export demand after the geopolitical situation eases [26] - Eggs: The price shows a narrow - range shock, and the cost and supply - demand jointly dominate the trend [26] - Red Dates: The price is under pressure above, and it mainly shows a low - level shock and bottom - building [27][28]