《黑色》日报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry's production has a seasonal rebound this week, but the increase is slow. The iron - water output has increased by 30,000 tons, and the output of the five major steel products remains stable. The apparent demand has increased more than the output, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that for rebar, and the domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export orders remain stable. Affected by the steel mills' production cuts in the first quarter, although the demand is weak, the inventory reduction is normal, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. However, it lacks upward driving force, and the upward driving force mainly comes from the raw material end. Recently, the strengthening of crude oil may affect the trend of ferrous metals. It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coils will fluctuate around 3,150 and 3,200 respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract rose slightly yesterday, mainly affected by news. Geopolitical games, the undetermined negotiation between BHP and Chinese mines, and the resumption of iron - water production are the focus of future iron ore trading. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume has increased slightly this period, the Australian shipment volume continues to rise, and BHP's shipment has dropped to a historical low. A super typhoon in Australia may cause a short - term decline in iron ore shipments, but subsequent replenishment is possible. On the demand side, the iron - water output has increased slightly, slightly lower than expected, and some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, with the profitability of steel mills improving. Currently, the terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel exports are uncertain. In terms of inventory, both steel mill and port inventories have decreased slightly. It is expected that the port inventory will either decrease slightly or remain unchanged. In the short term, the main iron ore contract will fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 780 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke futures showed a high - level decline trend yesterday. The mainstream coke enterprises initiated the first round of price increase after the Spring Festival on March 23, which is expected to be successfully implemented. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for coke price increases, and port prices fluctuate with futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and the increase in chemical production prices makes up for coke losses. After the Two Sessions, the coking start - up rate has increased. On the demand side, after the Two Sessions, the steel mill production restrictions were lifted, iron - water output increased, steel prices rebounded at a low level, and the replenishment demand will gradually recover later. In terms of inventory, coking plants are reducing inventory, while steel mills and ports are increasing inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing, with the short - term supply and demand of coke basically balanced. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices, with the reference range of 1,650 - 1,850, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke. - The coking coal futures also showed a high - level decline trend yesterday. The spot auction prices in Shanxi have turned into a general increase pattern, and Mongolian coal quotes fluctuate with futures. After the festival, the replenishment demand is gradually warming up. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the daily coal output is increasing; in terms of imported coal, the port inventory is slowing down and remains at a relatively high level after the resumption of customs clearance. On the demand side, after the Two Sessions, the steel mill production restrictions were lifted, iron - water output increased, coking production increased synchronously, and with the cost increase, coke prices are expected to bottom out and rebound. In terms of inventory, washing plants, coking enterprises, steel mills, ports, and ports are all increasing inventory, while coal mines are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory shows a change of downstream active replenishment. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices, with the reference range of 1,150 - 1,350, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The main ferrosilicon contract oscillated weakly recently. Geopolitical conflicts, coal prices, and supply growth rate jointly affect ferrosilicon prices. Fundamentally, ferrosilicon production has decreased slightly, the start - up rate in production areas has also declined, and the resumption of production is lower than expected. The manufacturer's profit has improved. In terms of steel demand, the iron - water output has increased slightly, slightly lower than expected, and some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, with the profitability of steel mills improving. Currently, the terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel exports are uncertain. In terms of non - steel demand, the daily output of magnesium alloy is at a relatively high level and has increased. The ferrosilicon export has weakened, but the export profit has improved. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke may rise. In the short term, due to the complex international geopolitical situation, the supply and demand of ferrosilicon both increase, but the supply growth rate is lower than expected, and the supply - demand is still in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to long ferrosilicon and short ferromanganese for price difference repair. - The main ferromanganese contract fluctuated widely. Hebei Iron and Steel Group released a new round of steel procurement, and CML announced the May quotation to China. Fundamentally, the ferromanganese supply continues to decline, the start - up rate has declined for several consecutive weeks, and the joint production reduction of manufacturers may be in progress. The production pressure in the south is still relatively large, and the electricity price subsidy in Yunnan has led to some resumption of production; there will be new production capacity of ferromanganese plants in the second quarter. In terms of demand, the iron - water output has increased slightly, slightly lower than expected, and some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, with the profitability of steel mills improving. Currently, the terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel exports are uncertain. In terms of cost, the import of manganese ore is in a tight balance, and factors such as the resumption of downstream ferromanganese production and increased shipping costs boost prices. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range of 5,700 - 6,800 [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,230 yuan/ton, 3,200 yuan/ton, and 3,300 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar are 3,132 yuan/ton, 3,162 yuan/ton, and 3,184 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 4 yuan/ton, - 4 yuan/ton, and - 2 yuan/ton. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,290 yuan/ton, 3,240 yuan/ton, and 3,300 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coils are 3,313 yuan/ton, 3,322 yuan/ton, and 3,321 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 8 yuan/ton, - 9 yuan/ton, and - 4 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price is 2,980 yuan/ton, and the slab price is 3,730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu is 3,262 yuan/ton, and the cost of converter rebar is 3,174 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The profits of rebar in East China, North China, and South China are - 21 yuan/ton, - 51 yuan/ton, and 199 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 21 yuan/ton, and - 11 yuan/ton. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China are - 21 yuan/ton, - 11 yuan/ton, and 49 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 11 yuan/ton, and - 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - water output is 228.2 tons, an increase of 7.0 tons or 3.1% compared with the previous value. The output of the five major steel products is 839.6 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value. The rebar output is 197.9 tons, a decrease of 5.5 tons or - 2.7% compared with the previous value, including an electric - arc furnace output of 32.7 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons or - 4.3%, and a converter output of 165.2 tons, a decrease of 4.0 tons or - 2.4%. The hot - rolled coil output is 305.6 tons, an increase of 5.4 tons or 1.8% compared with the previous value. - The inventory of the five major steel products is 1,897.8 tons, a decrease of 48.4 tons or - 2.5% compared with the previous value. The rebar inventory is 861.9 tons, a decrease of 27.5 tons or - 3.1% compared with the previous value. The hot - rolled coil inventory is 453.3 tons, a decrease of 8.0 tons or - 1.7% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.9 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons or 4.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for the five major steel products is 888.0 tons, an increase of 19.5 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for rebar is 225.4 tons, an increase of 17.3 tons or 8.3% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 313.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 927.5 yuan/ton, 846.8 yuan/ton, 847.4 yuan/ton, and 884.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of 7.6 yuan/ton, 7.7 yuan/ton, 7.6 yuan/ton, and 7.6 yuan/ton, and increases of 0.8%, 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively. - The 05 - contract basis of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 110.5 yuan/ton, 29.8 yuan/ton, 30.4 yuan/ton, and 67.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 2.9 yuan/ton, - 2.8 yuan/ton, - 2.9 yuan/ton, and - 2.9 yuan/ton, and changes of - 2.5%, - 8.6%, - 8.8%, and - 4.1% respectively. The 5 - 9 spread is 29.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.7%. The 9 - 1 spread is 20.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton or - 2.4% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2,271.6 tons, an increase of 56.6 tons or 2.6% compared with the previous value. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3,144.3 tons, an increase of 95.5 tons or 3.1% compared with the previous value. The national monthly import volume is 9,763.8 tons, a decrease of 2,200.9 tons or - 18.4% compared with the previous value [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 228.2 tons, an increase of 7.0 tons or 3.1% compared with the previous value. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) is 321.0 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value. The national monthly pig iron output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6,072.2 tons or - 100.0% compared with the previous value. The national monthly crude steel output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6,817.7 tons or - 100.0% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 17,098.40 tons, a decrease of 89.1 tons or - 0.5% compared with the previous value. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 9,034.1 tons, an increase of 105.0 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 23.0 days, an increase of 2.0 days or 9.5% compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi (warehouse - receipt) is 1,681 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke in Rizhao Port (warehouse - receipt) is 1,767 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton or 0.6%. The 05 contract of coke is 1,761 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or - 0.8%. The 09 contract of coke is 1,846 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or - 1.0%. The steel - union coking profit (weekly) is 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of medium - sulfur primary coking coal in Shanxi (warehouse - receipt) is 1,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) is 1,333 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 05 contract of coking coal is 1,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or - 0.9%. The 09 contract of coking coal is 1,369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or - 0.7%. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) is 552 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton or 11.5% [6]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 64.8 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons or 0.8% compared with the previous value. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.3 tons, unchanged. The iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 231.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons or 1.3% compared with the previous value [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 997.8 tons, an increase of 16.3 tons or 1.7% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 90.1 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons or - 4.4% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 691.7 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons or 0.5% compared with the previous value. The port inventory is 216.1 tons, an increase of 17.0 tons or 8.5% compared with the previous value. - The coking coal inventory of Fenxi Coal Mine's cleaned coal is 97.2 tons, a decrease of 11.0 tons or - 10.2% compared with the previous value. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1,047.5 tons, an increase of 42.5 tons or 4.2% compared with the previous value. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 782.4 tons, an increase of 8.5