LPG早报-20260327

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rise in the Middle East situation, attacks on Iranian and Qatari gas fields, and compressor leaks have pushed up the PG futures market significantly. The current basis is weak, and the domestic market is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. The 4 - 5 month spread in the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly. In the future, there will likely be a shortage of goods in the second half of April in China, and if the Strait is interrupted for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage, and the external market will remain strong [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - Daily Price Changes: From March 20 - 26, 2026, the prices of liquefied gas in South China, East China, and Shandong showed an overall upward trend. For example, the price of South China liquefied gas rose from 6300 on March 20 to 7220 on March 26 [1] - Contract Data: On March 26, the PG2605 contract closed at 6541 (-53) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 199 (-43). The number of warrants was 1300 (-1800). The night session closed at 6550 (+9), with a 5 - 6 month spread of 14〈-11〉 [1] 2. Fundamental Data - Inventory and Capacity Utilization: Port inventory ratio is 35.84% (+0.79pct), enterprise storage capacity utilization is 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and PDH operating rate is 65.63% (+2.4pct) [1] - Profit Situation: Propylene spot profit has weakened slightly, and the paper - making profit of PDH to PP in East and South China has declined [1] 3. Spread and Basis Data - Basis: The latest basis is - 1057 (-736) [1] - Month - to - Month Spread: The 4 - 5 month spread is 64 (-68), and the FEI month - to - month spread is 112 US dollars (+28) [1] - Price Difference: The PG - FEI c1 is 35 (-15.5), the South China CP propane arrival discount is 501 (+108), and the FEI - MOPI price difference is - 76 (+52) [1]