集运早报-20260327

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 04 contract is gradually entering the delivery logic. There is a contradiction between its weak fundamentals and the potential increase in fuel costs. In the short term, there is a high possibility of a decline in spot prices. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks still exist, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The 10 contract follows the cost - support logic, with a long time horizon and a peak season in between. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. - The core of other far - month contracts lies in the blockade time of the Strait of Hormuz. If it is blocked for a long time, it will not only disrupt the global supply chain, but also high oil prices will have a negative impact on the European economy. The transmission path of this geopolitical event to the European route is complex and highly uncertain. It is recommended to avoid the high - volatility risks of far - month unilateral positions and look for arbitrage opportunities from the valuation of the monthly spread [3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs EC Contract Information - EC2604 had a closing price of 1771.4, a decline of 1.75%, a basis of - 78.1, a trading volume of 12470, an open interest of 10730, and an open - interest change of - 1330 [2]. - For other contracts (EC2605 - EC2612), their prices, price changes, bases, trading volumes, open interests, and open - interest changes are also provided in the report [2]. - The monthly spreads (e.g., EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, EC2606 - 2610) and their changes compared to the previous days and weeks are presented [2]. Spot and Index Information - The spot price on 2026/3/23 was 1693.26 points, with a month - on - month increase of 8.79% [2]. - The SCFI (European route) on 2026/3/20 was 1636 dollars/TEU, with a month - on - month increase of 1.11% [2]. European Route Spot Situation - In Week 13, MSK opened flat at 2250 dollars, PA reported 2400 - 2500 dollars, and some voyages were 2200 dollars (2000 dollars for large orders). The average spot price converted to the futures price was about 1700 - 1800 points [4]. - In the first half of April, YML and ONE reported 2500 dollars, EMC reported 3160 dollars, and OOCL reported 3100 dollars [4]. - Maersk reported 2650 dollars in Week 14 (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous week) and 2350 dollars in Week 15 (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week). On Thursday, CMA reported 2800 dollars, and ONE's FE4 line was 2000 dollars [4]. Related News - On 3/26, Trump announced that the strike on Iranian energy facilities would be postponed for 10 days until April 6 at the request of Iran. Mediators said the possibility of a cease - fire was still low due to the tough demands of both sides [5]. - On 3/27, according to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump was considering sending an additional 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East [5]. Price Trend Charts - There are price trend charts of EC main contracts, EC forward curves, and various TCI (different routes) and SCFI (European route) seasonal trends [6][7][8][9] etc.