建信期货油脂日报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term oil and fat market is mainly driven by external crude oil. Attention should be paid to the progress of US biofuel policy and international crude oil price trends. The expected improvement of bilateral relations significantly boosts market risk appetite and US soybean export procurement expectations. The US biofuel policy may be finalized at the end of March. Indonesia may raise palm oil export taxes in April and accelerate its B50 biodiesel mandatory blending plan. The continuous Middle - East conflict supports oil prices and the demand outlook for biofuel raw materials, keeping the oil and fat sector at a high level, and a bull spread option can be considered. If the macro - situation cools down, with the seasonal increase in palm oil production in the producing areas, the increase in future imported soybean arrivals, and the possible suppression of demand due to weak economic growth and Middle - East situation uncertainties, oil and fat prices will回调 from high levels, and there is an opportunity for the soybean - palm oil price spread to widen [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Market Quotes Review: Dongguan's third - grade rapeseed oil traders offer quotes: 6 - 9 months, third - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 100, first - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 300. East China's third - grade rapeseed oil in March: OI2605 + 520. East China's soybean oil basis quotes: first - grade soybean oil, spot: Y05 + 320; far - month price: y2605 + 250 (5 - 6 months); Y2609 + 240 (5 - 7 months); y2609 + 250 (6 - 9 months). Third - grade soybean oil: 05 + 270, degummed soybean oil in April: 05 + 100. A Guangdong oil factory's palm oil basis quotes are stable: imported 24 - degree P2605 + 30, national standard 24 - degree P2605 + 80, refined 24 - degree P2605 + 230, 18 - degree P2605 + 170 [7] - Operation Suggestions: Bull spread options can be considered. If the macro - situation cools down, there is an opportunity for the soybean - palm oil price spread to widen [8] 3.2行业要闻 - Imported Soybean Inventory: As of March 25, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports is about 8 million tons, compared with 6.8 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7.5 million tons. The cumulative arrivals this month are 5.7 million tons. In March 2026, the imported soybean arrivals are 7.1 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons compared with the forecast of 5.2 million tons last month (a month - on - month change of 36.17%), and an increase of 1.9 million tons compared with 5.1 million tons in the same period last year (a year - on - year change of 37.61%) [9] - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: From March 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 11.21% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 9.74% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.28% month - on - month [10] 3.3数据概览 - Malaysian Palm Oil Exports: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 are 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase compared with 1,022,673 tons from February 1 - 25. Exports to China are 90,400 tons, an increase of 38,400 tons compared with 52,000 tons in the same period last month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 are 1,389,549 tons, a 50.6% increase compared with 922,649 tons from February 1 - 25 [17] - Australian Rapeseed Production: Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach the second - highest in history. The March quarterly report of ABARES raised the rapeseed production forecast by 450,000 tons to 7.7 million tons [17]