建信期货原油日报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump is prepared for both negotiation and confrontation. Before the risk in the Strait of Hormuz is eliminated, oil prices will continue to rise. Measures such as joint reserve releases and sanctions relief cannot offset the supply - side loss of 15 million barrels per day and do not solve the fundamental problem. As supply - side tightness persists, the oil price center will rise again. SC will be significantly stronger than foreign markets due to the sharp increase in Middle - East tanker freight rates. Given the high risks in the oil market driven by geopolitics, it is recommended to consider call spread options [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: WTI's opening price was $88.49/barrel, closing at $91.29/barrel, with a high of $91.73/barrel, a low of $86.46/barrel, a decline of 1.15%, and a trading volume of 37.76 million hands. Brent's opening price was $96.6/barrel, closing at $98.06/barrel, with a high of $98.42/barrel, a low of $93.45/barrel, a decline of 2.17%, and a trading volume of 53.3 million hands. SC's opening price was 726 yuan/barrel, closing at 733.1 yuan/barrel, with a high of 743.6 yuan/barrel, a low of 711.6 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.81%, and a trading volume of 9.66 million hands. Iraq's oil production has dropped to 800,000 barrels per day, a cumulative decrease of 80% due to transportation disruptions [5] - Operation Suggestions: Given the high risks in the oil market driven by geopolitics, it is recommended to consider call spread options [6] 3.2 Industry News - France's Minister of Commerce: The release of strategic oil reserves will be discussed at the G7 ministerial meeting next Monday - A Turkish oil tanker, M/T Altura, carrying about 1 million barrels of Ural crude from Novorossiysk was attacked by a drone in the Black Sea near Istanbul - Barclays: If the situation persists until the end of April, the forward price of Brent crude in 2026 may be repriced to $100 per barrel. The risk of Barclays' $85/barrel forecast for Brent crude in 2026 still leans towards the upside - On March 25, 2026, Trump said he was negotiating with Iran, claiming that Iran was eager to reach an agreement but afraid to say so [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from Bloomberg, EIA, and wind [11][13][17]