有色早报-20260327

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices were volatile and declined this week due to significant macro - geopolitical disturbances. There are concerns about China's consumption capacity and the supply of scrap copper is tight. The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium - term and suggests paying attention to the support around 93,000 - 96,000 RMB next week [1] - Aluminum supply is damaged and it is highly energy - dependent, so it is expected to perform strongly in the metal sector despite the overall weakness of non - ferrous metals under the Fed's interest rate hike expectation [1] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are average. In the short - term, the support is weak under the background of trading recession expectations, but long - term capital investment is limited and there are supply disturbances from Iran [4] - Nickel prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations under the condition of bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy intervention [6] - Stainless steel is expected to follow nickel prices and maintain range - bound oscillations due to weak fundamentals and supply - side policy intervention [8] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and oscillatory trend under the influence of overseas inventory drag and recycled lead profit support [10] - Tin prices are greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin has strong upward elasticity; if liquidity tightens, the callback space is large [14] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term and bottom - oscillate around the seasonal marginal cost in the long - term [18] - Lithium carbonate's short - term fundamentals' spot contradictions are weakened, and the futures are mainly macro - driven. The upward breakthrough needs futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, while the downward breakthrough needs demand collapse or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [20] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices were volatile and declined. The overseas market questioned the US inventory siphoning ability, and there were concerns about China's consumption capacity. The domestic scrap copper supply was tight, and the substitution demand for electrolytic copper by scrap copper increased [1] Aluminum - Affected by the Iran crisis, some aluminum plants in the Middle East reduced production. The external market was stronger than the internal market, and the overall non - ferrous metals were under pressure, but aluminum is expected to perform strongly in the metal sector [1] Zinc - The medium - term zinc ore supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has accumulated above 250,000 tons. In the short - term, the support is weak under the trading recession expectation [4] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased in February. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is accumulating in China and slightly decreasing in LME. Nickel prices are expected to range - bound oscillate [6] Stainless Steel - Steel mill production decreased slightly. The downstream is gradually recovering. The cost has increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to follow nickel prices and range - bound oscillate [8] Lead - The primary lead production is resuming, and the recycled lead production is delayed. The battery demand is recovering, and the spot inventory has decreased. Lead prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [10] Tin - Tin prices declined this week. The supply is gradually recovering, and there are supply - side risk factors. The demand is rigid, and the inventory is mainly in the exchange. The price is greatly affected by liquidity [14] Industrial Silicon - The supply is in a state close to balance. The price is expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term and bottom - oscillate in the long - term [18] Lithium Carbonate - In March, the de - stocking slowed down. The futures are mainly macro - driven. The upward and downward breakthroughs need specific conditions [20]