大越期货贵金属早报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the deadlock in the cease - fire negotiations between the US and Iran and Trump's statement of delaying the strike on Iranian energy facilities for ten days, the prices of gold and silver have fallen. However, due to the high uncertainty of the US - Iran peace talks and the easing of emotions, the prices of gold and silver will fluctuate. The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, oil prices are high, and the expectation of interest rate hikes is rising, causing gold prices to continue to give back gains in recent years. With the approaching mid - term elections, there is still support at the macro - level [4][5][9][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 3.85% to $4376.90 per ounce. The US three major stock indexes and European three major stock indexes all closed down. The US bond yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 8.34 basis points to 4.414%. The US dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.93, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 6.9206 [4] - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 6.22% to $68.12 per ounce. Other market conditions are similar to those of gold [5] 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 3.48, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of gold futures warehouse receipts is 1067463 kilograms, unchanged, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - Silver: The basis is - 13, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts is 370299 kilograms, a decrease of 5795 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position is long, and the main long position is increasing, which is bullish [5] 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:00, Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson will talk about the US economy; 07:10, Fed Governor Barr will speak; Time TBD, the 2026 Global Developers Pioneer Conference will open, and the Brain - Computer Interface Innovation and Development Forum of the Zhongguancun Forum will be held; 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits from January to February; 15:00, UK's retail sales in February; 22:00, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in March; 23:00, Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) will talk about the economic outlook; 23:30, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (2026 FOMC voter) will talk about macro - economy and monetary policy, and San Francisco Fed President Daly (2027 FOMC voter) will give an opening speech at a monetary policy seminar; At 00:00 the next day, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel will speak; On Sunday, many European countries will start daylight saving time, and the market trading time will be advanced by one hour [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, oil prices are high, and the expectation of interest rate hikes is rising, causing gold prices to continue to give back gains in recent years. With the approaching mid - term elections, there is still support at the macro - level. The factors that are bullish for gold include global turmoil, tense Middle - East situation, the influence of the shadow Fed, the upcoming appointment of a new Fed chairman, Trump's tariff disputes, etc. The bearish factors include high oil prices leading to capital transfer to crude oil and related commodities, the rising expectation of Fed interest rate hikes, the optimistic expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the ineffectiveness of reciprocal tariffs [9] - Silver: The logic is similar to that of gold. In addition, the photovoltaic and technology sectors support the silver price, and the low spot inventory and the hot supply - shortage game are also bullish factors. The bearish factors also include the deterioration of risk appetite [12][14] 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1.32% to 147,144, the short position increased by 5.47% to 44,494, and the net position decreased by 4.00% to 102,650. The SPDR gold ETF position remained unchanged [38][43] - Silver: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 0.10% to 240,033, the short position increased by 0.73% to 214,706, and the net position decreased by 4.96% to 25,327. The silver ETF position decreased slightly [41][45]