大越期货油脂早报-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for oil prices is oscillating with a slight upward bias. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Tensions in Sino-US relations have affected the export of new US soybeans, putting pressure on prices. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up oil prices. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,646, with a basis of 174, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [2] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Same as soybean oil [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 95,000, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46% [3] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,200 - 9,800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Same as soybean oil [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,224, with a basis of 513, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44% [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stock-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. Palm oil is in the tremor season [5] -利空: Oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil inventories are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - Main Logic: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]