大越期货棉花早报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are generally positive. The global consumption in the 26/27 season is 25 million tons, and the production is 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. The textile and clothing exports from January to February increased by 17.6% year - on - year, and the cotton and yarn imports also increased. The basis shows a premium over the futures, the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is long, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear. The textile exports from January to February were good, and with the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", along with the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract, with support around 15,000 and resistance around 15,700, suggesting a range - bound trading strategy [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the regulation of Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026 with an expected reduction of over 10%, downstream replenishment before the Spring Festival, the reduction of export tariffs to the US, the easing of Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional peak season. Negative factors include the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The ICAC predicts that the global consumption in the 26/27 season is 25 million tons and the production is 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. The USDA March report shows that in the 25/26 season, the production is 26.343 million tons, the consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. From January to February, the textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. From January to February, China's cotton imports were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%, and the yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The Ministry of Agriculture's March forecast for the 25/26 season shows a production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,745, and the basis is 1200 (for the 09 contract), showing a premium over the futures [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's March forecast for the 25/26 season shows an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Position: The position is long, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - Expectation: The textile exports from January to February were good. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", along with the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract, with support around 15,000 and resistance around 15,700, suggesting a range - bound trading strategy [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (March): In the 25/26 season, the global cotton production is 26.343 million tons, the consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. Different countries have different changes in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventory [10][11]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): In the 26/27 season, the global cotton production is expected to be 24.8 million tons, a 4.0% decrease; the consumption is 25 million tons, a 0.7% decrease; the ending inventory is 16.6 million tons, a 1.0% decrease; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.40%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease; the global cotton trade volume is expected to be 9.6 million tons, a 1.0% decrease; the yield per unit area is expected to be 822 kg/ha, a 1.6% decrease; and the planting area is expected to be 30.2 million hectares, a 0.7% decrease [12]. - China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture): In the 25/26 season, the expected production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.