大越期货玻璃早报-20260327

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market is currently bearish due to factors such as low - level supply with cold - repair falling short of expectations, weak downstream deep - processing orders dragged down by the real estate sector, and high inventory levels. The cost increase is expected to lead to short - term glass price fluctuations [2]. - Considering the macro - sentiment boost, low supply, weak downstream orders, and high factory inventories, glass prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract dropped from 1057 yuan/ton to 1036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.99%. The spot price in Shahe remained at 960 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 97 yuan/ton to - 76 yuan/ton, a change of - 21.65% [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 960 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but it is still at a low level, leading to a decline in production [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines is 207, with an operating rate of 70.41%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting capacity of float glass is 145,800 tons, also at a historically low level in the same period [16][18]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [22][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 73.622 million weight boxes, a 1.09% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2][37]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [38].