大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints For Coking Coal - The overall supply of coking coal in the main producing areas is sufficient, but with the release of downstream demand and the warming of market sentiment, the inventory of most mines is low, and some tight - supply coal types are in short supply. The online auction market has almost no unsold lots, and all coal types show high - premium transactions. The premium of some high - quality main coking coal has further expanded [2]. - The basis is positive, with the spot price at 1300 and the basis at 70, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1971 million tons, a decrease of 243 million tons compared with last week. The inventory of steel mills is 820 million tons, port inventory is 258 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 893 million tons [2]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line. The main position of coking coal is net long, but the long position is decreasing [2]. - With the downstream resuming production, demand increases, and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers has significantly recovered. The spot market sentiment of coking coal and coke has significantly improved. The improvement in terminal finished product transactions and the recent increase in steel prices have boosted the upstream market. It is expected that the coking coal price will be stable with a slight upward trend in the short term [2]. For Coke - Due to the increase in speculative demand and the recovery of steel mills' demand for coke, the current shipment of coking enterprises is good, and the in - plant coke inventory is maintained at a low level. The price increase of the coking coal market has far exceeded expectations, and the online auction price is generally at a high level. Although coking enterprises still have a certain profit space with the support of chemical products, the coke supply is relatively stable [5]. - The basis is negative, with the spot price at 1650 and the basis at - 61, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - The total sample inventory of coke is 944 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons compared with last week. The inventory of steel mills is 689 million tons, port inventory is 199 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 56 million tons [5]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line. The main position of coke is net long, but the long position is decreasing [6]. - Coking enterprises have smooth shipments, and the coke inventory is maintained at a low level. Coking enterprises have a strong expectation of price increase under profit pressure, but steel prices are fluctuating, and some steel mills have low profits, so they have a certain resistance to the price increase of coke. In the short term, the coking enterprises and steel mills will continue to play a game, and it is expected that the coke price will be stable with a slight upward trend in the short term [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price - On March 26 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at various ports are provided, including different coal types such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, fat coal, and lean coal, along with their price changes [9]. - On March 26 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows the prices and price changes of different grades of metallurgical coke from different origins at various ports [10]. Inventory - Port Inventory: The coking coal port inventory is 258 million tons, unchanged from last week; the coke port inventory is 199 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons compared with last week [20]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 893 million tons, a decrease of 225 million tons compared with last week; the coke inventory is 56 million tons, an increase of 12 million tons compared with last week [24]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 820 million tons, a decrease of 18 million tons compared with last week; the coke inventory is 689 million tons, a decrease of 9 million tons compared with last week [29]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Positive Factors: Iron - water production has increased, and supply is difficult to increase [4]. - Negative Factors: Coking and steel enterprises have slowed down the procurement of raw coal, and steel prices are weak [4]. Coke - Positive Factors: Iron - water production has increased, and the blast furnace operating rate has increased synchronously [8]. - Negative Factors: The profit space of steel mills has been squeezed, and the replenishment demand has been partially overdrawn [8].