大越期货纯碱早报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of soda ash is showing a downward trend as enterprise maintenance begins, but the overall supply remains abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at the highest level in the same period in history. The basis indicates that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The inventory is above the 5 - year average and increasing. The price is below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, and the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. Considering the cost - side boost, soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1244 yuan/ton to 1225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.53%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei remained unchanged at 1220 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 24 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton, an increase of - 79.17% [5]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei was 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was - 25.30 yuan/ton, and the profit using the East China co - production process was 227.5 yuan/ton [14]. 3.4 Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 87%. The weekly production of soda ash was 81.81 tons, including 43.40 tons of heavy soda ash, which was at a historical high [17][19]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 101.92%. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.58 tons, with an operating rate of 70.41% [22][25]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in national plants was 185.19 tons, an increase of 2.22% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [30]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [31]. 3.8 Influencing Factors - Likely to be positive: The cold repair of downstream float glass is less, and the production remains stable. The conflict between the US and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. - Likely to be negative: The operating load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the production is expected to remain at a high level. The production of photovoltaic glass, the downstream of heavy soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. - Main Logic: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4].