大越期货沪铝早报-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral, with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, domestic supply reaching its ceiling, weak downstream demand, and a continued slump in the real - estate market, as well as volatile short - term macro - sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 35,619 tons to 452,044 tons last week, remaining neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, also neutral. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2]. - In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and is bullish for aluminum prices. However, macro - sentiment is volatile, and attention should be paid to Middle East events [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamental situation of aluminum is neutral, with carbon neutrality limiting capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and changeable short - term macro - sentiment. The basis is bearish, inventory is neutral, the price trend is neutral, and the main positions are bullish. Long - term carbon neutrality is bullish for aluminum prices, and attention should be paid to macro - events [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish factors are the unoptimistic global economy, high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption, and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Daily Summary - Shanghai's spot price was 70,770 yesterday, down 375; today it is 70,870, down 400. Nanchu's spot price was 70,690, down 450. The SHFE inventory increased by 29,728 tons to 136,300 tons this week, and the LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74,750 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows that there was a supply shortage from 2018 - 2023, and a supply surplus is expected in 2024. In 2024, the production is 43.1227 million tons, the net import is 1.9616 million tons, the apparent consumption is 45.025 million tons, the actual consumption is 44.875 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is 0.15 million tons [24].