大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260327

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The external market has declined and continues to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Supply is sufficient with increased production scheduling in March and rising domestic inventories. The nickel ore price is rising, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia is having an impact. The nickel - iron price is weakly stable, stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and new - energy vehicle sales data is in line with expectations but with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The overall view is bearish, but the basis is bullish, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions. The conclusion is that SHFE Nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The nickel ore price is firm, the nickel - iron price is weakly stable, and the cost line provides strong support. The stainless - steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand is weak. The overall view is neutral, the basis is bullish, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - sloping 20 - day moving average. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2605 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless - Steel Price Overview - Futures Prices: On March 26, the SHFE nickel main contract was at 135,860, down 270 from March 25; the LME nickel was at 17,165, down 180; the stainless - steel main contract was at 14,390, down 100. The nickel index was at 135,950, down 100, and the cold - rolled index was at 13,837, down 153 [10]. - Spot Prices: SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 139,350 on March 26, up 1550; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 142,050, up 1050; 1 imported nickel was at 136,450, up 1750; nickel beans were at 139,100, up 1800. Cold - rolled 304*2B prices in different regions remained unchanged [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 20: The SHFE nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons. The futures inventory increased by 228 tons, and the overall inventory decreased by 20 tons [12]. - On March 26: LME nickel inventory was 282,240, down 216; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 57,593, down 12; the total inventory was 339,833, down 228 [13]. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 20: Wuxi inventory was 598,700 tons, Foshan inventory was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 693,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,400 tons [17]. - On March 26: The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 45,676, an increase of 2139 from March 25 [18]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - Nickel Ore: On March 26, the CIF price of red - soil nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 79.5 dollars/wet ton, down 0.5; Ni0.9% was 35 dollars/wet ton, unchanged. The shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port decreased [21]. - Nickel - Iron: The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1085.52 yuan/nickel point, up 0.15; the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3650 yuan/ton, unchanged [21]. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost was 14,146, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,086, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 17,977 [23]. Nickel Import Cost The import price was converted to 134,277 yuan/ton [25].