大越期货沥青期货早报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease next week as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory is in a state of continuous destocking. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 4424 - 4662 [7]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 22.7709%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.80 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 10,989 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.59%. The output of sample enterprises was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.31%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.163 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.96% [7]. - Demand: The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt was 21.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the开工率 of building asphalt was 4.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32 percentage points; the开工率 of modified asphalt was 1.128%, a month - on - month increase of 0.40 percentage points; the开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 10%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage points; the开工率 of waterproofing membranes was 36%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points. All were lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 686.52 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 769.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 48.92%. The loss of asphalt processing decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the market in the short term [7]. - Basis: On March 26, the spot price in Shandong was 4,330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 213 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.195 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%; the in - plant inventory was 788,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 600,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00%. The social and in - plant inventories continued to accumulate, while the port inventory continued to be destocked, which is bullish [7]. - Disk: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [7]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of different contracts of asphalt futures, as well as the basis, some inter - monthly spreads, registered warehouse receipts, and the price of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong [14]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [23]. - Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2026 [29]. - Ratio Trends of Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil: The report presents the historical ratio trends of asphalt and SC crude oil, and asphalt and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 [33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The report presents the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [38]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [41]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The report presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [47]. - Production: The report presents the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [50]. - Price of Marrow Crude Oil and Monthly Production Trend of Venezuelan Crude Oil: The report shows the historical price of Marrow crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2026 [54]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The report presents the historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [57]. - 开工Rate: The report shows the historical weekly开工rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 [60]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: The report presents the historical estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 [63]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [66]. - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: The report presents the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026 [70]. - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 [73]. - Import and Export Situation: - Export and Import Trends: The report presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [76]. - Import Price Spread Trend of South Korean Asphalt: The report shows the historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [80]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: The report presents the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2026 [82]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [85]. - Downstream Demand: - Highway Construction and Traffic Fixed - Asset Investment: The report presents the historical highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [88]. - New Local Special Bonds: The report shows the historical trend of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2026 [90]. - Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year: The report presents the historical year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026, as well as the historical monthly working hours of excavators from 2020 to 2026 [92]. - Asphalt开工Rate: The report presents the historical开工rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2026, and the historical开工rates of asphalt by use from 2019 to 2026 [97][100]. - Downstream开工Situation: The report shows the historical开工rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2021 to 2026 [102]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [107].