大越期货豆粕早报-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For Bean Meal (M2605): It will oscillate between 2920 and 2980. The U.S. soybeans are narrowly fluctuating, and the domestic bean meal has bottomed out and rebounded. In the short - term, it has entered a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, affected by the U.S. soybean trend and the short - term easing of the Middle East conflict [9]. - For Soybeans (A2605): It will fluctuate between 4540 and 4640. The domestic soybeans are oscillating and falling back, but the short - term good demand supports the market, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market is in a short - term strong oscillation, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvesting and Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory in oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. The bean meal has returned to range oscillation [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for bean meal in March remains low, suppressing the price expectation of bean meal [13]. - The bean meal inventory in domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Affected by the possible weather speculation in South American soybean producing areas and the preliminary agreement on Sino - U.S. trade negotiations, the bean meal is short - term oscillating and slightly stronger, waiting for further clarification on the Middle East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and the follow - up of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Bean Meal - Likely to Rise: The preliminary Sino - U.S. trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans; the bean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still variables in the weather of South American soybean producing areas [14]. - Likely to Fall: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in March; with the progress of Brazilian soybean harvesting, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. Soybeans - Likely to Rise: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [15]. - Likely to Fall: Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and China increases the purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Bean Meal: The spot price in East China is 3180, with a basis of 228, showing a premium over the futures. The oil mill's bean meal inventory is 67.05 tons, a 6.89% increase compared to last week and a 10.5% increase year - on - year [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4740, with a basis of 113, showing a premium over the futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 511.57 tons, a 6.75% decrease compared to last week and a 103.17% increase year - on - year [11]. - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated between 17.97% - 23.05% [32]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and total supply also showed an upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated between 18.41% - 33.01% [33]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content