大越期货甲醇早报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Under the superposition of multiple positive factors, the methanol market is expected to maintain a strong short - term operation. Inland methanol is expected to remain firm, and the port market is expected to continue to be strong this week. The current methanol has shown a leading trend in the chemical market. The follow - up should focus on whether the US will withdraw troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. Once there are signs of the end of the war, the driving logic will change rapidly. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 oscillating between 3050 - 3250 [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are positive in the short - term. Although the domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, the olefin demand has increased significantly, the futures have risen sharply, the upstream inventory removal has accelerated, and the port inventory has decreased rapidly. The spot support is further consolidated. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. The inventory in East and South China ports has decreased. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average line. The main positions are net long and increasing. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 oscillating between 3050 - 3250 [5] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Some devices have stopped or reduced loads; Iranian methanol start - up is at a low level, and imports are expected to continue to shrink in February; the inventory of methanol factories in the production area is low, and some enterprises even limit sales; some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6] - Likely Negative Factors: Domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream formaldehyde and other industries gradually stop production for holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices in the port have stopped, and the local demand has weakened significantly; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stockpiling, and the phased demand has decreased [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, the prices of various regions have different degrees of changes, such as the price of Jiangsu increasing by 7.05% week - on - week, and the price of Hebei increasing by 11.68% week - on - week. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has increased by 113 yuan/ton, and the registered warehouse receipts have increased by 340. The basis, import spread, and price differences between regions have also changed [8][9] - Start - up Rate: The weighted average start - up rate of the whole country is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared with last week. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8] - Inventory Situation: As of March 19, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 82.67 tons, a decrease of 5.39 tons compared with the previous period. The overall available and tradable supply of methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 5.43 tons to 44.15 tons [5] - Profit of Different Processes: The profits of coal - to - methanol, coke - oven gas - to - methanol, and natural - gas - to - methanol processes have different performance. For example, the weekly increase of coal - to - methanol profit is 105 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol has increased by 592 yuan/ton [22] - Prices of Traditional Downstream Products: The prices of formaldehyde remain unchanged, the prices of dimethyl ether remain unchanged, and the prices of acetic acid have increased by 21.21% week - on - week [33] - Production Profit and Load of Downstream Products: The production profit of formaldehyde is negative and has decreased, and the load has increased slightly; the production profit of dimethyl ether has decreased, and the load has increased; the production profit of acetic acid has increased, and the load has decreased slightly; the production profit of MTO is negative and has decreased, and the load has decreased [37][40][45][50] 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance: Many domestic methanol devices are in the state of maintenance, parking, or load reduction, involving regions such as Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast, with different maintenance start and end times and losses [60] - Foreign Methanol Device Operation: The operation status of foreign methanol devices varies. Some devices in Iran are in the process of restarting or running at a low level, and some devices in other countries are running normally or have completed maintenance [61] - Olefin Device Operation: The operation status of olefin devices is different. Some devices are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some have low loads [62]