工业硅期货早报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost support in the Xinjiang region remained stable, with the cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon at 9,769.7 yuan/ton. The social inventory increased by 1%, and the sample enterprise inventory increased by 27%. The main port inventory decreased by 1.47%. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 69,000 tons, a 47% week - on - week increase. The silicon wafer production was in a loss state, while the battery cell and component production were in a profitable state. The organic silicon inventory was at a low level, with a production profit of 2,503 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工 rate of 68.6%, remaining flat week - on - week but lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was at a high level, and the regenerative aluminum开工 rate increased by 1.5% to 59%. - Expectation: With an increase in supply scheduling and a low - level demand recovery, and rising cost support, the industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,645 - 8,825 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The scheduled production for March is expected to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.78 GW, a 1.66% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory was 276,500 tons, a 2.46% week - on - week decrease. Currently, the silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The scheduled production for March is 49.01 GW, a 10.70% increase compared to the previous month. The battery cell production in February was 37.09 GW, a 10.49% month - on - month decrease. The external sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 6.79 GW, a 16.66% week - on - week increase, and the current production is in a profitable state. The scheduled production for March is 46.36 GW, a 24.99% increase. The component production in February was 29.3 GW, a 16.76% month - on - month decrease. The expected component production for March is 41.39 GW, a 41.26% increase. The domestic monthly inventory decreased by 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory increased by 12.30%. Currently, the component production is in a profitable state. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,060 yuan/ton, with a production income of - 310 yuan/ton. - Expectation: With continuous increase in supply scheduling and overall demand showing a continuous decline, and weakening cost support, the polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,505 - 36,575 yuan/ton [8][9]. Overall - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans for production suspension and reduction. - Bearish factors: Slow post - holiday demand recovery and a situation of strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Industrial Silicon: Analyzes the supply, demand, cost, inventory, and other aspects of industrial silicon, and provides an expected price fluctuation range [6]. - Polysilicon: Analyzes the supply, demand, cost, and other aspects of polysilicon, and provides an expected price fluctuation range [8][9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial Silicon: Presents data on the price, inventory, production, and开工 rate of industrial silicon, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of its downstream organic silicon and aluminum alloy [14]. - Polysilicon: Presents data on the price, inventory, production, and demand of polysilicon, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15]. Other Sections - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Displays the trends of the basis and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [17]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Shows the inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions and ports [20]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Presents the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon in different regions [24]. - Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends: Displays the trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and reducing agent prices in the main production areas [29]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Shows the cost trends of 421 and 553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [32]. - Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the weekly supply - demand balance data of industrial silicon [36]. - Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of industrial silicon [39]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends: Displays the price, production, and capacity utilization trends of DMC [42]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Downstream Price Trends: Shows the price trends of 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [44]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Import - Export and Inventory Trends: Presents the import - export and inventory data of DMC [49]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation: Displays the price, supply, and import - export data of aluminum alloy [54]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends: Presents the inventory and production data of aluminum alloy ingots [57]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs): Shows the production and sales data of automobiles and the export data of aluminum alloy wheel hubs [60]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends: Displays the cost, price, inventory, production, and demand trends of polysilicon [64]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of polysilicon [67]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer Trends: Shows the price, production, inventory, and demand data of silicon wafers [70]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Battery Cell Trends: Displays the price, production, inventory, and export data of battery cells [73]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Component Trends: Presents the price, inventory, production, and export data of photovoltaic components [76]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends: Shows the price, production, and import - export data of photovoltaic accessories [79]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm): Displays the cost and profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [82]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends: Presents the trends of new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and photovoltaic power station grid - connected capacity [83].