每日商品期市纵览-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial futures, taking into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Most of the varieties are expected to show short - term oscillatory trends, with some having long - term investment value or facing specific supply - demand challenges [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Stock Index: Due to the repeated Middle - East situation, risk - aversion sentiment has risen again, and the market is cautious. Although the deep discount of index futures has slightly converged, IF, IC, and IM are still at extremely low historical levels. Supported by domestic policy expectations, the downside is limited, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [2]. - Treasury Bonds: With large differences in negotiation conditions between the US and Iran, and the possibility of "fighting while negotiating" being high, the weekend military buildup of the US may intensify the situation. The impact of risk - aversion sentiment gradually outweighs inflation concerns, and the bond market will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [3]. - Container Shipping on the Europe Line: The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Near - month contracts are suppressed by shipowners' price cuts to grab cargo and weak spot freight rates, while far - month contracts are supported by continuous geopolitical risks. The situation of detouring around the Red Sea continues, and EU customs reform may stimulate early shipments. It will maintain a differentiated oscillatory trend in the short term [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum and Palladium: Iran deems US negotiations as deception, and the Middle - East conflict raises inflation concerns, delaying the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The uncertainty of US tariff policies and fiscal pressure strengthen the weak - dollar logic, and supply disruptions from South African mining enterprises provide support. It will oscillate weakly in the short term and has long - term investment value [4]. - Gold and Silver: The deadlock in geopolitical negotiations boosts oil prices, causing precious metals to experience a secondary correction. The response to negative news gradually decreases. Trump's delay in the strike provides a breathing opportunity, and the expectation of Fed rate hikes rises. Policy uncertainty restricts the rebound, and it will maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern [5][6]. - Copper: Geopolitical uncertainty dominates, and the market is cautious, lacking strong upward momentum. Domestic social inventories continue to decline significantly, and downstream restocking supports demand. However, smelter shipments are limited, and imported supplies do not increase much. There is a game between macro - suppression and fundamental de - stocking, and the price will oscillate within a narrow range [6]. - Aluminum: The expectation of tightened macro - liquidity dominates the trend. Hawkish signals from the Fed suppress the valuation of commodities, and both domestic and foreign aluminum prices decline. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is at a high level, social inventories enter the accumulation cycle, downstream purchases as needed, consumption recovery is less than expected, and the decline in alumina prices weakens cost support. The price will oscillate weakly under the game of multiple factors [6]. - Alumina: The industry's operating rate remains high, the market supply - demand is becoming more relaxed, the import supply of bauxite is stable, and cost support weakens. Domestic inventory pressure gradually accumulates, and with macro - funds leaving for risk - aversion, the price drops slightly. The tight balance at the mine end limits the downside, and it shows an oscillatory consolidation trend [7]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Aluminum alloy strongly follows the Shanghai aluminum price. Due to tight raw materials and the impact of illegal tax - refund policies, there is strong support at the bottom [8]. - Zinc: On the supply side, Iran has little impact on the supply end. Imported TC declines again, while domestic TC remains stable. Domestic smelters maintain high production enthusiasm, continuously releasing pressure. On the demand side, downstream demand is delayed, inventories seasonally accumulate, and inventory pressure is high, showing a differentiation from overseas. Attention should be paid to the inventory turning point at low prices, and it will mainly oscillate following the sector [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Indonesia plans to implement nickel windfall and export taxes in April, and policy expectations consolidate the price bottom. As the expectation of US - Iran negotiations rises, nickel ore shipments gradually resume, but shipping costs are high. New - energy demand is weak, and downstream stainless - steel buyers are highly cautious. It will oscillate under the resonance of supply - demand and policies [9]. - Tin: Uncertainty in macro - news suppresses the price. After a weakly oscillatory period, it rebounds slightly, and its fundamental negatives have been fully released. The impact of Myanmar's resumption of production and Indonesia's increased exports weakens, downstream purchasing sentiment warms up, and spot trading is active. The core driver is still macro - geopolitical factors, and it will oscillate in the short term [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: On the supply side, Zimbabwe's ban on lithium - concentrate exports continues, and the复产 progress of Yichun mining areas in China is slow, significantly reducing global supply elasticity and strengthening the expectation of raw - material shortages. On the demand side, it maintains resilience, with the energy - storage field continuing to develop, and downstream rigid demand is firmly supported. In terms of inventory, social inventories remain low, smelter inventories are at a three - year low, and downstream available inventory days are few. The low - inventory environment amplifies market sentiment. The market is driven by the tight supply - demand balance and capital sentiment, showing an oscillatory and upward trend [10]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The current core contradiction in the market is the imbalance between supply and demand. The supply side is moderately increasing production, and there are expectations of further production increases, exerting supply pressure. On the demand side, the recovery of the photovoltaic downstream is less than expected. High inventories and insufficient demand jointly dominate the market trend [10]. - Lead: Fundamentally, primary lead smelting is steadily resuming production, and the opening of the import window brings obvious upward pressure, but most secondary lead producers are in a loss. On the demand side, terminal consumption is gradually recovering, and downstream orders are mainly for restocking. In the future, with inventory reduction and cost support, the lead price is expected to oscillate strongly [11][12]. Black Commodities - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Rising oil prices drive up coking coal prices. Tight iron - ore inventories and rising shipping costs provide cost support. High inventories and high warehouse receipts of hot - rolled coils limit the upside. Pig - iron production is slowly recovering, steel - mill profitability is limited, and real - estate and infrastructure policies support demand. The rebound height is restricted under cost support [13]. - Iron Ore: It is significantly driven by events, with a complex mix of long and short factors in the market. The domestic and foreign demand momentum is weak, supply shipments are gradually recovering, and rising fuel costs provide support. Steel - mill复产 drives up pig - iron production, and the structural shortage of port inventories is the core driver. Overall, the fundamentals show a "near - strong, far - weak" characteristic. The price is supported by cost and tight spot supplies, but in the medium - to - long - term, it is suppressed by expectations of demand and supply increases [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: They fluctuate with energy expectations and are driven by energy sentiment, with valuations at a high level. The price increase is due to power - coal expectations rather than their own fundamentals. Domestic production is rising, inventories are approaching the same - period level, pig - iron production and steel - mill profits are lower than in previous years, and Mongolian - coal port inventories are under pressure. The price increase faces delivery risks and cannot deviate from fundamentals for a long time [14]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: There is strong cost support at the bottom. Australian hurricanes disrupt manganese - ore shipments, and miners' price - holding and rising coking - coal prices provide support. Ferrosilicon production is increasing, while silicomanganese production remains low. Steel - mill demand support is limited, silicomanganese inventories are at a historical high, and the de - stocking pressure is high. Manganese - ore disruptions amplify price fluctuations [14]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Oil prices are oscillating upwards. The attack on a Russian oil tanker intensifies supply disruptions. There are large differences in US - Iran negotiations, and the US's military buildup in the Middle East may increase military pressure. Trump's delay in attacking Iranian energy facilities causes short - term price fluctuations, which are quickly repaired. The tight spot - supply situation remains unchanged [16]. - Fuel Oil: The market structure, spot premium, and refinery profits of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are continuously correcting, and the high - sulfur oil market shows a weakening trend. However, geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East persist, and the continuous de - stocking of Fujairah inventories support the short - term fuel - oil market. The future supply - demand pattern and price trend need to closely follow geopolitical changes and restocking situations [16]. - Asphalt: Recent geopolitical disturbances have caused local logistics disruptions and supply reductions in crude oil, leading to a rapid increase in crude - oil prices. The instability of the Middle - East situation amplifies the upward impulse of crude oil. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances are the core factor, overriding asphalt's own fundamentals [17]. - Pulp - offset Paper: Pulp port inventories have increased significantly, and spot prices have dropped slightly, suppressing futures - price valuations. The increase in downstream operating loads and overseas pulp - mill shutdowns provide support. The supply - demand of offset paper maintains a weak balance. After the festival, rigid demand is recovering, and paper - mill resumption of work increases supply expectations. Both are affected by geopolitical sentiment and will oscillate within a range in the short term [17]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: The changing Middle - East situation intensifies price fluctuations. The large differences in US - Iran negotiations reduce the probability of a cease - fire, and the varieties follow crude oil to oscillate strongly. Middle - East refinery supplies are disrupted, domestic pure - benzene maintenance increases, and the impact of styrene - plant load reduction is small. Downstream restocking demand exists but resists high prices. Attention should be paid to the duration of the strait closure, and it will oscillate strongly in the short term [18]. - LPG: It oscillates at a high level during the geopolitical variable window period. Domestic supply is shrinking, with both commodity volume and arrival volume decreasing, showing a supply gap. Chemical demand is weak, and the decline in PDH operating rate suppresses consumption. Port inventories are continuously accumulating. The navigation of the Middle - East straits is the core variable, and the actual supply gap is difficult to fill. It will oscillate at a high level in the short term [19]. - PP Propylene: The geopolitical situation is still unclear, and it maintains an oscillatory pattern. Refinery load reduction brings substantial supply reduction, and PDH plants rely on inventory for production. The poor navigation of the Strait of Hormuz threatens propane supply. After the situation eases, supply support still exists, and the downside is limited. The market uncertainty is high, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [19]. - Plastic: It operates at a high - level oscillation. Geopolitical sentiment has slightly cooled down. Refinery load reduction and increased maintenance bring obvious supply reduction, supporting the market. If the conflict continues, the price will be strong; if the situation eases, the risk premium will be withdrawn, but the actual supply reduction limits the decline. It is affected by the resonance of supply - demand and geopolitics, and it is advisable to wait and see for the situation to become clear in the short term [20]. - Rubber: The geopolitical situation is repeated. Synthetic rubber increases positions and breaks through highs, while natural rubber maintains an oscillation. Tightening Asian energy drives ethylene - plant load reduction, increasing the butadiene shortage and strengthening cost support. The production of cis - butadiene rubber declines. Natural - rubber inventories are at a high level, and production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The overseas low - production season provides support. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand supports the valuation, and it will stabilize in an oscillation [20]. - Soda Ash: Soda - ash daily production is at a high level, and supply pressure persists. Rigid demand is currently stable but weak. The increase in photovoltaic cold - repairs, but there may be unexpected supply - side disturbances. Inventory performance is better than expected. If the market rises, there is some restocking space for middle - stream players such as futures - spot arbitrageurs, but due to limited demand elasticity, the price increase is expected to be limited. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for the further accumulation of industrial contradictions [21][22]. - Glass: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and daily melting is in a downward stage. However, high middle - stream inventories have always been a risk concern in the market because once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be large, and downstream may not be able to bear it. Secondly, there are continuous news of ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines in Shahe waiting to be ignited. The expectation of supply recovery and high middle - stream inventories limit the upside of glass, and demand needs to be verified [22]. - Caustic Soda: On the supply side, domestic chlor - alkali plant maintenance continues, and the industry operating rate maintains at 84.6%, with marginal supply tightening. However, enterprise inventories have increased slightly month - on - month, and short - term pressure still exists. On the demand side, the rigid demand of downstream alumina and viscose staple fiber is stable, and export inquiries are active, providing stable support overall. The market is affected by the supply - demand contradiction and market sentiment, showing a downward oscillatory trend within a range [23]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The market has sufficient pig supplies, slaughterhouses' procurement is smooth, and farmers' enthusiasm for selling is high. The short - term supply - demand pattern is loose, the weak trend is difficult to change, and supply pressure dominates the trend. Futures prices continue to be under pressure [24]. - Oilseeds: The China - US negotiation in April is postponed, and attention should be paid to the bio - diesel conference. In the domestic market, in the short term, the slow shipment from Brazil and rising freight rates support spot prices, but the medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged. After the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widens, rapeseed - related products regain cost - effectiveness, and the price spread is being repaired [24]. - Oils: The US - Iran situation is still uncertain, international oil prices are oscillating repeatedly, and the oil market is also in an oscillatory stage. It needs further promotion from bio - diesel policies; otherwise, it is difficult to break through. Attention should be paid to the review result of the US bio - fuel policy this week [25]. - Cotton: In the short term, the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran causes large fluctuations in oil prices, increasing macro - risks. The release of domestic quotas increases short - term supply, and Zhengzhou cotton prices decline. However, current downstream inventories are low, finished - product sales are fast, and consumption performance is good. There is still support at the bottom of cotton prices. The domestic - foreign price spread has been repaired recently. Attention should be paid to the upcoming new - year planting - intention report from USDA next week [25]. - Sugar: The outer - market raw - sugar is stronger than the domestic market. The sugar - making season in Inner Mongolia ends, and the expected beet - planting area decreases. The Middle - East geopolitical situation is tense, and capital sentiment is cautious. Domestic spot prices are stable, and trading is average. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitics and the outer - market, maintaining an oscillatory pattern [26]. - Eggs: The price slightly rises in a stable - to - strong manner. Inventories at all levels are low, pre - Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking starts, and downstream restocking willingness increases. The laying - hen inventory is at a high level, and supply pressure still exists. As the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking nears the end, terminal demand is less than expected. Supported by low inventories and stocking expectations, it will oscillate in the short term [26]. - Peanuts: Oil - mill purchases increase. Sufficient commercial - peanut supplies and high oil - mill inventories suppress prices, while some oil - mill purchases provide support. There is a two - way game between supply and demand, and the market will maintain a high - level oscillation in the future. The oil - mill purchase rhythm is the core influencing factor [26]. - Red Dates: The new - year planting season has not arrived yet, and the market focus is still on the demand side. Currently, downstream sales are average, and restocking is light. The driving force for red - date prices is limited. With the overall domestic supply - demand being loose, there is still pressure on the upside, and it may mainly oscillate at a low level to build a bottom [27].