聚氯乙烯市场周报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the downstream industry's resistance to high prices, PVC futures fluctuated widely and declined week - on - week. As of March 27, 2026, V2605 closed at 5,615 yuan/ton, down 4.43% from the previous week [8]. - On the supply side, Yantai Wanhua restarted and some device loads were adjusted upwards. The PVC production capacity utilization rate increased by 0.80% week - on - week to 80.92%. The calcium carbide process start - up rate increased by 0.52% week - on - week to 85.24%, and the ethylene process start - up rate increased by 1.46% week - on - week to 70.70% [8]. - On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate of PVC increased by 4.3% week - on - week to 45.96%, and the pipe start - up rate increased by 2% week - on - week to 41.2% [8]. - In terms of inventory, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.20% week - on - week to 1.374 million tons, and the inventory level remained high [8]. - In terms of cost, the calcium carbide price increased this week. The average national cost of the calcium carbide process increased by 2.62% week - on - week to 5,533 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as ethylene and VCM increased, driving the cost of the ethylene process to increase by 7.84% week - on - week to 7,867 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide process decreased by 228 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 35 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process decreased by 322 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 778 yuan/ton [8]. - Looking ahead, the ethylene process plants in China continue to reduce their loads due to raw material supply. Calcium carbide process enterprises may postpone their maintenance plans to seize the profit window. PVC supply is not expected to decline significantly. The downstream start - up rate continues to increase seasonally, but the lack of orders from product enterprises and the resistance to high prices suppress the overall demand for PVC. Overseas ethylene process plants have shut down due to raw material shortages, and the improvement of the export side may depend on the duration of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, the price support of domestic supply and demand for PVC has weakened. In the short term, V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 5,200 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: PVC futures fluctuated widely and declined week - on - week. V2605 closed at 5,615 yuan/ton, down 4.43% from the previous week [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side capacity utilization increased, demand - side start - up rate increased, inventory increased slightly, cost increased, and profit decreased [8]. - Outlook: PVC supply is not expected to decline significantly, demand is suppressed, and the export improvement depends on geopolitical factors. Short - term V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Futures price: V2605 declined week - on - week [9]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts decreased week - on - week [9]. - Position: The position of the 05 contract decreased week - on - week [13]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread decreased week - on - week [13]. 3.3 Spot Market - Import and export prices: CFR China and Southeast Asia quotes increased by 10 US dollars to 1,060 US dollars/ton, and the Indian quote remained unchanged at 1,050 US dollars/ton [19][23]. - Domestic prices: The spot price of calcium carbide process in East China decreased, while the spot price of ethylene process increased significantly [26]. - Basis: The basis fluctuated widely, and the spot was slightly at a discount [31]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Lanthanum charcoal and calcium carbide: The prices of lanthanum charcoal and calcium carbide increased week - on - week. The start - up rate of lanthanum charcoal was 55.44%, and the start - up rate of calcium carbide was 68.46% [35][40]. - EDC and VCM: The CIF intermediate price of VCM was 920 US dollars/ton, and the international price of EDC was 351 US dollars/ton [44]. 3.5 Industry Chain Situation - Supply: In 2026, only 300,000 tons of PVC plants were put into production. The output in February was 1.9851 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The production capacity utilization rate increased week - on - week [48][52]. - Demand: The pipe start - up rate was 39.2%, the profile start - up rate was 34.35%. The export volume of PVC floor products was 393,200 tons in January and 322,300 tons in March [55][59]. - Import and export: The import volume was 14,000 tons in January and 8,500 tons in February. The export volume was 285,500 tons in January and 312,100 tons in February [62]. - Inventory: The PVC social inventory increased week - on - week, and the inventory level was high [67]. - Cost: The cost of the calcium carbide process and the ethylene process increased week - on - week [71]. - Profit: The profit of the calcium carbide process and the ethylene process decreased week - on - week [79]. 3.6 Options Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 52.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 47.39% [84].