铁矿石市场周报：港库下滑+恐慌情绪减弱，铁矿期价宽幅整理-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - factors: The US and Iran have different stances on "negotiation + cease - fire", which affects market sentiment. In the industry, the increase in iron ore shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil, along with the continuous increase in steel mill blast furnace operating rates and molten iron production, and the decline in port inventories, suggest that the expected increase in demand will drive further inventory reduction, providing support for iron ore prices. The I2605 contract can be short - bought on pullbacks, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control. Also, considering the increase in molten iron production, the continued decline in port inventories, and the expected increase in demand supporting the ore price, when the iron ore futures price pulls back, one can consider buying call options [7][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - Price: As of the close on March 27, the price of the iron ore main contract was 812 (-3.5) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 840 (-5) yuan/dry ton [5]. - Shipment: From March 16 to March 22, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3144.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.5 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2559.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.0 tons [5]. - Arrival: From March 16 to March 22, 2026, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2383.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.1 tons; the total arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 2271.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.6 tons; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 1050.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 179.8 tons [5]. - Demand: The daily average molten iron production was 231.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.19 tons [5]. - Inventory: As of March 27, 2026, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17666.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 147.35 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2687.43 tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8978.56 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 55.5 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 131.89 tons [5]. - Profitability: The profitability rate of steel mills was 43.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.39 percentage points [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, US President Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, US Eastern Time, and denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran. Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi said that ships from countries such as China, Russia, and Pakistan had safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Domestically, the State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement [7]. - Technical: The iron ore I2605 contract was consolidating at a high level, with the price running above multiple moving averages, and there was strong technical support at the 800 mark. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0 axis, and the red bar was shrinking [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: This week, the I2605 contract was consolidating at a high level. The price of the I2605 contract was weaker than that of the I2609 contract. On the 27th, the price difference was 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10.5 yuan/ton [13]. - Warehouse receipts and positions: On March 27, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the DCE was 3200, a week - on - week decrease of 200. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 6620, a decrease of 12016 from the previous week [19]. - Spot price: On March 27, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 835 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 27th, the basis was 23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Arrivals: From March 16 to March 22, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3144.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.5 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2559.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95.0 tons. The total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2383.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.1 tons; the total arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 2271.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.6 tons; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 1050.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 179.8 tons [29]. - Inventory: As of March 27, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17666.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 147.35 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 330.31 tons, a decrease of 5.61 tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased by 26.42 tons, Brazilian ore decreased by 69.98 tons, and trade ore decreased by 84.92 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 8978.56 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 55.50 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 284.59 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.44 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.55 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 days [32]. - Inventory days: As of March 26, the average inventory - available days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 23 days, a week - on - week increase of 2 days. As of March 26, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2014, a week - on - week decrease of 42 [36]. - Import and production: From January to February, China's cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 21002.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. As of March 27, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 63.72%, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%; the daily average fine powder output was 40.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84 tons; the inventory was 62.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.17 tons. In 2026, from January to February, China's iron ore raw ore output was 16164.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In February, the iron fine powder output of 433 domestic iron mines was 2261.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.2 tons (1.5% increase) and a year - on - year decrease of 4.2 tons (0.2% decrease) [40][43]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Crude steel production: In January - February 2026, China's crude steel production was 16034 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the daily average crude steel production was 271.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.6%. From January to February, China's cumulative steel exports were 1559.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, and cumulative steel imports were 82.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [48]. - Blast furnace operating rate and molten iron production: On March 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a week - on - week increase of 1.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.45 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 231.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.19 tons [51]. 3.5 Options Market - Option strategy: Considering the increase in molten iron production, the continued decline in port inventories, and the expected increase in demand supporting the ore price, when the iron ore futures price pulls back, one can consider buying call options [54].