沪铜市场周报：供需双增库存去化，铜价或将有所支撑-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be supported by the situation of increasing supply and demand and decreasing inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Review: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first declined and then rose, with a weekly increase of 1.26%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 95,930 yuan/ton [7] - International Economic Outlook: The OECD's latest economic outlook report predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 2.9% in 2026 and will slightly rebound to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate will slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the inflation rate this year will reach 4.2%, much higher than the Fed's expectation [7] - Domestic Diplomatic Events: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand. Both the US and Iran are willing to restart negotiations, and the international community should encourage them to return to the negotiation table [7] - Fundamentals: The spot index of copper concentrate TC has continued to reach new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply has gradually strengthened, providing strong cost support for copper prices. The utilization rate of copper smelter production capacity has gradually recovered, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventory in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production. With the arrival of the peak season and the decline of copper prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises has been boosted, and they are replenishing inventory at low prices. The inflection point of social inventory decline has been confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Contracts: As of March 27, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 610 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,695 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 95,930 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,190 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 187,395 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 13,786 lots [14] - Spot Prices: As of March 27, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 95,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,355 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton [17] - Copper Premium and Position: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was $65/ton, a week - on - week increase of $12.5/ton. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 56,038 lots, an increase of 6,979 lots compared with last week [26] - Options Market: As of March 27, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was above the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options open interest was 0.9, with a week - on - week change of 0.067 [31] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Copper Ore Quotations and Processing Fees: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate quotation in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 85,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,520 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper this week was 1,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 700 yuan/ton [34] - Copper Ore Imports and Scrap - Refined Spread: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3103 million tons, a decrease of 312,800 tons from January, a decline of 11.92% and a year - on - year increase of 5.96%. As of the latest data this week, the scrap - refined copper spread (including tax) was 4,784.51 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 997.73 yuan/ton [39] - Global Copper Mine Production and Port Inventory: As of December 2025, the global monthly production value of copper concentrates was 2,050,000 tons, an increase of 159,000 tons from November, an increase of 8.41%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 82.3%, an increase of 3.6% from November. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 315,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89,000 tons [44] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined Copper Production: As of December 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from November, an increase of 7.28% and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. As of January 2026, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,426,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from December, a decline of 0.16%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 78.6%, a decrease of 0.3% from December [46] - Refined Copper Imports: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 203,588.219 tons, a decrease of 47,080.37 tons from January, a decline of 18.78% and a year - on - year decline of 33.28% [54] - Social Inventory: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory increased by 17,475 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 1,011 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 50,776 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 440,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,400 tons [57] 3.5 Downstream and Application - Copper Products Production and Imports: As of December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from November, an increase of 0.14%. As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper products was 320,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from January, a decline of 15.79% and a year - on - year decline of 23.81% [64] - Power Grid Investment and Home Appliance Production: As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.11% and - 4.65% respectively. As of December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 4.4%, - 9.6%, 5.7%, 7%, and - 1.2% respectively [68] - Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production: As of February 2026, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 96.1211 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% and a month - on - month increase of 88.39%. As of February 2026, the cumulative production of integrated circuits was 81.52 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% and a month - on - month increase of 83.17% [74] 3.6 Overall Situation - Global Supply - Demand Situation: According to ICSG statistics, as of January 2026, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 17,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of January 2026, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 129,300 tons [79]