缺乏支撑因素，生猪疲弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the pig price continued to decline, with the main contract 2605 down 2.5% for the week. The supply is abundant as farmers are actively selling, and some even have passive overstocking due to weak demand. Market sentiment is low, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is weak. Although there is pre - Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking demand, it can't change the weak terminal consumption trend. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the pig price is expected to remain weak. Technically, the main 2605 contract's weekly K - line deviates from the moving average and is about to change the contract, with limited adjustment space due to lack of positive support [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Zhoudu Yaodian Xiaojie (Weekly Key Points Summary) - Market Review: The pig price continued to decline this week, and the main contract 2605 dropped 2.5% for the week [8]. - Market Outlook: Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The pig price is expected to remain weak. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, but the space is limited [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The futures price continued to decline this week, with the main contract 2605 down 2.5% for the week [8][12]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: As of March 27, the net short position of the top 20 holders in the pig futures increased by 1970 hands to 66461 hands compared with last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 483, a decrease of 568 from the previous week [18]. - Contract Spreads: The spread between lh2605 and lh2607 contracts is - 1215, and the spread between lh2605 and lh2609 contracts is - 2555 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - Base Difference: This week, the base difference of the May contract is - 465 yuan/ton, and that of the July contract is - 1680 yuan/ton [29]. - Spot Price: The national average pig price this week is 9.41 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.55 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets is 25.9 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.72 yuan/kg from last week [39]. - Pork and Sow Price: On March 26, the national average pork price is 15.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows is 32.45 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [46]. - Pig - Grain Ratio: As of the week of March 18, 2026, the pig - grain ratio is 4.4, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous week [50]. 3.4 Industry Conditions 3.4.1 Upstream - Sow Inventory: In December 2025, the official sow inventory is 39610000 heads. According to Mysteel data, in February, the sow inventory of 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.11% month - on - month [52][56]. - Pig Inventory: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory is 429670000 heads, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. According to Mysteel data, in February, the pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.79% month - on - month, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.36% month - on - month [60]. - Slaughter Volume and Weight: In February, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 12.95% month - on - month, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.85% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of pigs this week is 123.47 kg, an increase of 0.19 kg from last week [64]. 3.4.2 Industry Profit - Pig and Poultry Breeding Profit: As of March 27, the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 189.87 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 344.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 46.56 yuan/head. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.26 yuan/head, an increase of 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week; the breeding profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens is - 0.54 yuan/head, an increase of 0.08 yuan/head week - on - week [67]. 3.4.3 Import - In January and February 2026, China imported 70000 tons and 50000 tons of pork respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 37.5% in February. The total import volume in January - February is 120000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [74]. 3.4.4 Substitute Products - As of the week of March 27, the price of白条鸡 is 13.7 yuan/kg, the same as last week. As of the week of March 26, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs is - 0.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [78]. 3.4.5 Feed - As of March 26, the spot price of soybean meal is 3337.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67.72 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of corn is 2452.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06 yuan/ton from the previous week [85]. - As of March 20, the closing price of the DCE pig feed cost index is 950.47, and the average price of fattening pig compound feed is 3.36 yuan/kg [89]. - From January to February 2026, the feed output is 51098000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In February, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 3.84% month - on - month and 2.77% year - on - year [94]. 3.4.6 CPI - As of February 2026, China's CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year [99]. 3.4.7 Downstream - Slaughter and Inventory: In the 13th week of 2026, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate is 32.83%, an increase of 2.38 percentage points from last week and 6.23 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh - sales rate of key slaughter enterprises is 78.55%, a decrease of 1.62% month - on - month and 10.89% year - on - year; the frozen - product storage rate is 21.52%, an increase of 2.80% from last week and 4.38% year - on - year [103]. - Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption: As of February 2026, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 31770000 heads, a decrease of 27.86% from last month. From January to February 2026, the national catering revenue is 1026.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase [108]. 3.5 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [110].