热轧卷板市场周报：需求回升+成本支撑减弱，热卷期价反弹受阻-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rebound of hot - rolled coil futures prices is hindered due to the increase in demand and the weakening of cost support. Overall, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils remains above 310,000 tons, with strong terminal demand resilience. However, the international situation is volatile, and there are many uncertainties. It is recommended to operate the HC2605 contract in the range of 3340 - 3250, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of the close on March 27, the futures price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3299 (+2), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3310 (+10) (unit: yuan/ton/week) [7]. - The hot - rolled coil production increased to 305.61 (+5.4), year - on - year - 19.14 (unit: 10,000 tons) [7]. - The apparent demand increased. The current apparent demand was 313.63 (+3.12), year - on - year - 25.06 (unit: 10,000 tons) [7]. - Both factory and social inventories decreased. The total inventory was 453.27 (-8.02), year - on - year +57.31 (unit: 10,000 tons) [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 43.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.39 percentage points [7]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, US President Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time, and denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran. Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi said that ships from countries such as China, Russia, and Pakistan had safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Domestically, the State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement [9]. - Cost aspect: The shipment and arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills continued to rise, and port inventories declined. Iron ore prices may fluctuate strongly. Coking coal may enter range consolidation due to the chaotic situation between the US and Iran [9]. - Technical aspect: The HC2605 contract冲高回调, and the daily K - line ran between the moving averages MA5 - 60. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA ran above the 0 axis, and the red column shrank [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price - This week, the HC2605 contract冲高回调. It was weaker than the HC2610 contract. On the 27th, the price difference was - 11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2.2. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On March 27, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 543,161 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,766 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of hot - rolled coil futures contracts was 54,992 lots, an increase of 29,433 lots compared with the previous week [20]. 3.2.3. Spot Price - On March 27, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3313 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was stronger than the futures price. On the 27th, the basis was 11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3. Upstream Market 3.3.1. Raw Material Prices - On March 27, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 835 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [30]. 3.3.2. Iron Ore Shipment and Arrival - From March 16 to March 22, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.443 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 955,000 tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 25.594 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 950,000 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 23.831 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 661,000 tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 22.716 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 566,000 tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 10.504 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.798 billion tons [36]. 3.3.3. Iron Ore Inventory - As of March 27, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 176.6683 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4735 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3031 million tons, a decrease of 561,000 tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 84.9738 million tons, a decrease of 264,200 tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 54.2789 million tons, a decrease of 699,800 tons; the inventory of traded ore was 116.2976 million tons, a decrease of 849,200 tons. On March 26, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 239,940 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 95,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 140,700 tons [40]. 3.3.4. Coking Plant Situation - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased to 73.70%, an increase of 0.87%. The daily average coke output was 514,100 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons; the coke inventory was 497,800 tons, a decrease of 267,000 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 8.8554 million tons, an increase of 383,600 tons; the available days of coking coal were 13.0 days, an increase of 0.4 days [44]. 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply Side - In January - February 2026, China's crude steel output was 160.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. The daily average crude steel output in January - February was 2.718 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.6%. From January to February, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The cumulative steel imports were 827,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [48]. - On March 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a week - on - week increase of 1.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.45 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 2.3109 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 294,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 619,000 tons. On March 26, the weekly hot - rolled coil output of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 3.0561 million tons, an increase of 54,000 tons compared with the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 191,400 tons [51]. - On March 26, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 838,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,110 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12,900 tons. The social inventory in 33 major cities was 3.6942 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 586,000 tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.5327 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 80,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 513,900 tons [54]. 3.4.2. Downstream Demand - In February 2026, automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. From January to February, automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8% respectively. From January to February 2026, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 40.118 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; the production of household refrigerators was 16.643 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%; the production of household washing machines was 18.579 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% [57].