菜籽类市场周报：美伊冲突持续影响，菜油期价宽幅震荡-20260327

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Canola Oil: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the 05 contract was 9,877 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week. AAFC kept the forecast of Canada's rapeseed ending stocks for the 2025/26 season unchanged at 2.76 million tons and lowered the forecast for the 2026/27 season by 200,000 tons to 1.46 million tons. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East remain uncertain, and international oil prices are oscillating at a high level, driving up the expected demand for vegetable oil in biodiesel. High-frequency data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly in the first 25 days of March, and the end-of-month inventory is expected to decline further. The market anticipates that Indonesia may tighten palm oil exports, which continues to support palm oil prices. In the domestic market, the spot trading of edible oils is sluggish, and high prices are suppressing demand. The future imports of Canadian rapeseed are expected to increase significantly, adding pressure on supply in the far - term. Recently, the market has been trading on the drive of biodiesel demand. The canola oil futures price has generally maintained a wide - range high - level oscillation, with increased short - term volatility [8]. - Canola Meal: This week, canola meal futures declined. The closing price of the 05 contract was 2,315 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton from last week. As the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply pressure is gradually increasing, and Brazilian soybeans have a competitive edge, dampening the market's expectations for US soybean exports. Tensions between the US and Iran have eased slightly, but the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict still exists, and the macro - risk premium still supports the US soybean market. In terms of canola meal itself, China has lifted the anti - discriminatory tariff on Canadian canola meal, and the tariff on Canadian rapeseed has also dropped significantly. Canadian rapeseed and canola meal will flow back to the domestic market, and the long - term supply pressure will continue to restrict the market. Currently, canola meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The market's concerns about the near - term soybean supply have been alleviated. The canola meal price has oscillated and declined from a high level recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Canola Oil: The 05 contract closed at 9,877 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week. AAFC adjusted the inventory forecast, and geopolitical and market factors affect prices. The market is trading on biodiesel demand, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [8]. - Canola Meal: The 05 contract closed at 2,315 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton from last week. Supply and geopolitical factors impact the market, and it is in a weak supply - demand situation. The price has oscillated and declined from a high level, with large short - term fluctuations [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: Canola oil futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total open interest of 213,002 contracts, down 24,431 contracts from last week. Canola meal futures declined significantly, with a total open interest of 527,901 contracts, down 50,477 contracts from last week [15]. - Top 20 Net Positions: The net position of the top 20 in canola oil futures was - 17,025, and the net short position decreased compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 in canola meal futures was - 167,454, and the net short position increased compared to last week [21]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 765, and those of canola meal were 0 [27]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 10,380 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week. The basis between the active canola oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 503 yuan/ton. The canola meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,570 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active canola meal contract was + 255 yuan/ton [33][39]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 97 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of canola meal was - 88 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years [45]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The ratio of the 05 contract of canola oil to canola meal was 4.267, and the average spot price ratio was 3.98 [48]. - Price Spreads between Oils and Meals: The 05 contract spread between canola oil and soybean oil was 1,189 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly narrowed this week. The 05 contract spread between canola oil and palm oil was 109 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly narrowed this week. The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 622 yuan/ton, and the spot spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 710 yuan/ton as of Thursday [57][63]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Rapeseed: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 176,000 tons, down 5,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrivals of rapeseed in April, May, and June 2026 are 225,000 tons, 200,000 tons, and 520,000 tons respectively. As of March 26, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 55 yuan/ton. As of the 12th week of 2026, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 46,000 tons, up 15,500 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 11.76%. In February 2026, the total import volume of rapeseed was 69,617.89 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 79.10% and a month - on - month decrease of 51,231.78 tons [67][71][75][79]. - Canola Oil: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the domestic imported and crushed canola oil inventory was 295,800 tons, down 8,200 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.69%. In February 2026, the total import volume of canola oil was 200,000 tons, the lowest this year, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% and a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 5.254 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan. As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed canola oil was 156,800 tons, up 46,900 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 42.72% [83][87][91]. - Canola Meal: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the domestic imported and crushed canola meal inventory was 24,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%. In February 2026, the total import volume of canola meal was 182,509.72 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.61% and a month - on - month decrease of 82,530.18 tons. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3.0086 million tons [95][99][103]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis As of March 27, this week, the canola meal futures price declined from a high level. The implied volatility of the corresponding options was 23.93%, down 1.23% from last week's 25.16%, and it was at a medium level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [107].