螺纹钢市场周报：现货市场观望较浓，螺纹期价震荡回调-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for rebar is recovering, but the cost support is weakening due to the callback of furnace materials, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. It is recommended to trade the RB2605 contract in the range of 3080 - 3160, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [9] - The market may fall into range consolidation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put and call options [60] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of March 27, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3124 yuan/ton (+1), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3260 yuan/ton (-10) [7] - Rebar production decreased to 197.87 tons (-5.46), year - on - year (-29.56) [7] - Apparent demand continued to increase to 225.37 tons (+17.28), year - on - year (-19.95) [7] - Both factory and social inventories decreased. The total rebar inventory was 861.91 tons (-27.5), year - on - year (+42.8) [7] - The steel mill profitability rate was 43.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.39 percentage points [7] 3.1.2. Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US - Iran situation is tense; domestically, the market supervision department will strengthen anti - monopoly supervision. [9] - Cost aspect: The shipment and arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased, and the price of iron ore may be strong; coking coal may be range - bound [9] - Technical aspect: The RB2605 contract's rebound was blocked, with technical support around 3100 [9] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Market - This week, the RB2605 contract was weak in oscillation, and it was stronger than the RB2610 contract. On the 27th, the spread was - 27 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [13] - On March 27, the rebar warehouse receipt volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99613 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33827 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 68624 lots, an increase of 12532 lots from the previous week [21] 3.2.2. Spot Market - On March 27, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3329 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [27] - This week, the spot price of rebar was weaker than the futures price. On the 27th, the basis was 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21 yuan/ton [27] 3.3. Upstream Market 3.3.1. Iron Ore - On March 27, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 835 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/dry ton [31] - From March 16 - 22, 2026, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 2383.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.1 tons; the total arrival volume of 45 ports was 2271.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.6 tons; the total arrival volume of six northern ports was 1050.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 179.8 tons [35] - As of March 27, the inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 17666.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 147.35 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 330.31 tons, a decrease of 5.61 tons [35] 3.3.2. Coke - On March 27, the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [31] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased to 73.70% (+0.87%); the daily average coke output was 51.41 tons (+0.65); the coke inventory was 49.78 tons (-2.67); the total coking coal inventory was 885.54 tons (+38.36); the available days of coking coal were 13.0 days (+0.4) [39] 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply Side - In January - February 2026, China's crude steel production was 16034 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the daily average crude steel production was 271.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.6% [43] - On March 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a week - on - week increase of 1.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.45 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 231.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.19 tons [48] - On March 26, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 197.87 tons, a decrease of 5.46 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 29.56 tons from the same period last year [48] - On March 26, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building material production enterprises was 43.37%, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous week and a decrease of 6.48% from the same period last year [51] - This week, the average operating rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 68.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51 percentage points [51] - On March 26, the in - factory inventory of rebar in 137 building material production enterprises was 219.16 tons, a decrease of 17.04 tons from the previous week and an increase of 9.63 tons from the same period last year; the inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 642.75 tons, a decrease of 10.46 tons from the previous week and an increase of 33.17 tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 861.91 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.5 tons and a year - on - year increase of 42.8 tons [54] 3.4.2. Demand Side - In January - February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 9612 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The housing construction area was 535372 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%; the new housing construction area was 5084 million square meters, a decrease of 23.1%; the housing completion area was 6320 million square meters, a decrease of 27.9% [57] - In January - February 2026, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 52721 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in February increased by 0.39% [57] 3.5. Options Market - Due to the weakening cost support and the recovery of apparent demand but lack of market confidence, the market may be range - bound. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put and call options [60]