玉米类市场周报：小麦替代优势显现，玉米期价高位震荡-20260327

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn futures prices are oscillating at a high level. The international oil price is high due to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which boosts the freight and international corn prices. In the domestic market, the willingness of grain holders to sell has increased with the rising purchase price, but the risk of mildew has also risen due to high - temperature, leading to more high - moisture grain supply. The processing enterprise inventory has slightly increased, and the price increase is under pressure. The wheat substitution effect has strengthened, and the rumored rice auction in April may also have a negative impact on corn prices. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. - Corn starch futures prices have risen and then fallen. The supply of raw material corn has increased, leading to a higher operating rate of corn starch enterprises and increased supply pressure. The inventory has also slightly increased. However, the starch spot market performs well supported by the good price of raw material corn. The short - term market may remain volatile [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - Corn - The closing price of the main 2605 contract is 2369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from last week. The international situation boosts international corn prices, while in the domestic market, the supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. - Corn Starch - The closing price of the main 2605 contract is 2755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton from last week. The supply pressure has increased, but the spot market is supported by raw material prices. The short - term market may remain volatile [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position Changes - The corn futures May contract oscillated at a high level, with a total position of 1,124,900 lots, a decrease of 191,807 lots from last week. The corn starch futures May contract rose and then fell, with a total position of 254,131 lots (compared with 284,736 lots last week), a decrease of 30,605 lots [14]. - Top 20 Net Position Changes - The net position of the top 20 in corn futures is - 142,948, compared with - 196,157 last week, and the net short position has decreased. The net position of the top 20 in starch futures is - 21,269, compared with - 15,209 last week, and the net short position has increased [20]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 59,377 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch are 4,650 lots [26]. - Spot Price and Basis - As of March 26, 2026, the average spot price of corn is 2,452.55 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active May contract of corn and the spot average price is + 76.55 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin is 2,900 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 3,020 yuan/ton, with a decline this week. The basis between the May contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin is + 145 yuan/ton [31][35]. - Futures Inter - month Spread - The 5 - 7 spread of corn is - 18 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 5 - 7 spread of starch is - 15 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period [42]. - Futures Spread - The spread between the May contract of starch and corn is 386 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch is 670 yuan/ton [52]. - Substitute Spread - As of March 26, 2026, the average spot price of wheat is 2,590.56 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn is 2,452.55 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread is 138.01 yuan/ton. In the 12th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 819 yuan/ton, narrowing by 16 yuan/ton compared with last week [57]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Corn - Supply Side - As of March 20, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port is 23.4 tons, a decrease of 5.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory is 14.7 tons, a decrease of 1.50 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports is 254.1 tons, an increase of 35.9 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume in the four northern ports is 63.5 tons, a decrease of 11.7 tons week - on - week [46]. - The overall progress of domestic corn sales is 81% as of March 26, 2026, an increase of 3% from March 19, 2026, and a decrease of 6% compared with the same period in 2025 [59]. - In February 2026, the total import volume of ordinary corn is 17.00 tons, the lowest this year, an increase of 9.00 tons (112.50%) compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 20.00 tons compared with the previous month [63]. - As of March 26, the average inventory of feed enterprises is 31.57 days, an increase of 1.30 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 4.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.01% [67]. - Demand Side - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory is 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million (0.5%) compared with the end of the previous year. Among them, the inventory of breeding sows is 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million (2.9%) [71]. - As of March 27, the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 189.87 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 344.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 46.56 yuan/head [75]. - As of March 26, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin is 34 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan is - 399 yuan/ton, in Jilin is - 503 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang is 81 yuan/ton [80]. - Corn Starch - Supply Side - As of March 25, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions is 406.3 tons, an increase of 7.80% [84]. - From March 19 to March 25, 2026, the total corn processing volume in the country is 63.99 tons, an increase of 1.72 tons from last week; the weekly corn starch output is 33.36 tons, an increase of 1.19 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate is 60.98%, an increase of 2.18% from last week. As of March 25, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises in the country is 121.7 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.16%, a month - on - month increase of 1.59%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.71% [88]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of March 27, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2605 contract of corn is 10.63%, a decrease of 1.81% from 12.44% last week. The implied volatility has oscillated and declined this week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].