瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market continued to show minor fluctuations. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong remained stable on average compared to the previous week. The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 1.96% this week [6][9]. - In the near future, domestic urea production has slightly decreased. Next week, there may be 1 enterprise with planned plant shutdown and 2 - 3 enterprises with possible resumption of production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, there is a high possibility of a slight increase in production. In April, agricultural demand for green - turning fertilizer is basically over, with only sporadic transactions in some areas and a small amount of agricultural reserve demand. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers, boards, melamine, etc. is relatively stable. With frequent policies on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices of urea and the early release of some reserve supplies, the market trading sentiment has cooled down. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this week, and industrial demand is increasing. Although reserve supplies are being released, most urea factories still face tight supplies, and the inventory of some factories is gradually decreasing. Next week, as it is the last stage of reserve release, some local factories actively releasing reserves may lead to a further decline in enterprise inventory [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1900 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - by - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the domestic urea market was generally stable with minor fluctuations. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong was 1820 - 1840 yuan/ton, with the average price remaining the same as the previous week [6]. - Market Outlook: Production may slightly increase next week. Agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand is stable. Policy measures have cooled down the market sentiment. The inventory of urea enterprises is likely to continue to decline [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1850 and 1900 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 1.96% this week [9]. - Inter - period Spread: As of March 27, the UR 5 - 9 spread was - 51 [12]. - Position Analysis: Not elaborated in the content. - Warehousing Receipts: As of March 26, there were 9024 Zhengzhou urea warehousing receipts, an increase of 525 from the previous week [19]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of March 26, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was also 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [24]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of March 26, the FOB price of urea in China was 712.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28]. - Basis: As of March 26, the urea basis was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [32]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of March 25, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 690 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 26, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.97 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units from the previous week [35]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Production and Capacity Utilization: As of March 26, China's urea production was 147.56 tons, a decrease of 4.38 tons from the previous period, a 2.88% month - on - month decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 88.35%, a 3.84% decrease from the previous period [38]. - Inventory: As of March 26, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 16.9 tons, a 0.2 - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.20% increase. As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 70.05 tons, a 10.84 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 13.40% decrease [42]. - Export: In February 2026, urea exports were 11.15 tons, a 63.78% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 398.52 US dollars/ton, a 0.26% month - on - month increase [45]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 51.24%, a 1.27 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of melamine was 65.98% on average this week, a 6.67 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [49].