豆类市场周报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures showed a mixed trend. The main contract of soybean No. 1 decreased by 5.34%, the main contract of soybean No. 2 decreased by 2.05%, the main contract of soybean meal decreased by 3.04%, and the main contract of soybean oil increased by 0.7% [5][7][8][9]. - In the short - term, the soybean market in the Northeast production area is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation pattern, but there is a possibility of a slight correction for soybeans of general quality. The price of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is closely related to the shipping rhythm of Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slow and precipitation in some areas is uneven, it is difficult to change the fact of a Brazilian soybean bumper harvest, and the impact on the current market is limited. The long - term price of soybean meal is suppressed by the expected increase in domestic soybean arrivals from April to May [5][7][8]. - The core drivers of the current edible oil market are concentrated in the macro and policy aspects. The international soybean oil market is concerned about the impact of geopolitics on the energy supply chain and the uncertainty of the US biofuel policy [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Soybean No. 1: This week, the main 2605 contract decreased by 5.34%. By the end of this month, there will be a small peak of soybean auctions with a cumulative release of about 10,000 tons. The downstream enterprises mainly adopt a strategy of purchasing as needed, and the price increase momentum is insufficient. There may be a slight correction for soybeans of general quality [5]. - Soybean No. 2: This week, the main 2605 contract decreased by 2.05%. The US soybean futures are in a narrow - range shock. The domestic soybean price is related to the shipping rhythm of Brazilian soybeans. The slow harvest progress and uneven precipitation in some Brazilian regions have limited impact on the current market [7]. - Soybean Meal: This week, the main 2605 contract decreased by 3.04%. The US soybean futures are in a narrow - range shock. The domestic soybean meal price is related to the shipping rhythm of Brazilian soybeans. In the long - term, the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the significant increase in domestic soybean arrivals from April to May will suppress the forward price of soybean meal [8]. - Soybean Oil: This week, the main 2605 contract increased by 0.7%. The core drivers of the edible oil market are in the macro and policy aspects. The international soybean oil market is concerned about geopolitics and the US biofuel policy. Brazilian soybean crushers urged the government to allow higher - proportion biodiesel blending, which supports the oil price [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - Price Changes: The main 2605 contract of soybean No. 1 decreased by 5.34%, the main 2605 contract of soybean meal decreased by 3.04%, and the main 2605 contract of soybean oil increased by 0.7% [13][19][26]. - Spread: As of March 26, the 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal was - 78 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 58 yuan/ton [31][34]. - Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts: As of March 26, the net position of the top 20 in soybean No. 1 futures was - 14,475 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main contract were 20,942 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean meal futures was - 554,182 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main contract were 34,913 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean oil futures was - 121,795 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main contract were 24,690 lots [39][45][50]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - Domestic Soybean: As of March 26, the spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin was 4,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the basis of the main contract was - 227 yuan/ton [54]. - Soybean Meal: As of March 26, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract was 328 yuan/ton [62]. - Soybean Oil: As of March 26, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract was 304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week [66]. - Imported Soybean Premium: As of March 26, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in April was 92 cents/bu, a decrease of 5 cents/bu from last week; the FOB premium of Argentine soybeans in April was - 36 cents/bu, a decrease of 5 cents/bu from last week; the FOB premium of Brazilian soybeans in April was 10 cents/bu, an increase of 20 cents/bu from last week [71]. - Imported Soybean Arrival Cost: As of March 26, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 4,569.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.8 yuan/ton from last week; the arrival cost of South American soybeans was 3,859.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.55 yuan/ton from last week; the difference in arrival cost between the two was 709.76 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.25 yuan/ton from last week [75]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Weather: In the US, about 42% of the soybean - producing areas were in a drought state, and the drought situation was slightly alleviated compared with last week but worse than the same period last year. In Brazil, the precipitation pattern will change significantly in the next week, with a drying trend in the north, southeast, and central regions, and local rainfall in the south at the beginning of next week, which is expected to have no impact on the harvest progress [78][82]. - Upstream Supply: In 2025/26, the expected output of US soybeans was 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month; the inventory was 951.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last month. The expected output of Brazilian soybeans was 18,000 million tons, unchanged from last month; the inventory was 3,791 million tons, unchanged from last month. The expected output of Argentine soybeans was 4,800 million tons, a decrease of 50 million tons from last month; the inventory was 2,291.9 million tons, unchanged from last month [86][90][94]. - Domestic Industry: In the 12th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.1157 million tons, a decrease of 370,400 tons from last week, a decrease of 6.75%, and an increase of 2.5977 million tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 103.17%. The soybean meal inventory was 670,500 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from last week, an increase of 6.89%, and a decrease of 78,700 tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 10.50%. The national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.0537 million tons, a decrease of 24,700 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.29%, and an increase of 39,900 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 3.94%. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from the previous week, and the actual startup rate was 54.81% [108][111][114][119]. - Substitute Products: As of March 26, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 10,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil widened, while the spot and futures spreads of rapeseed - soybean oil narrowed. The average price of rapeseed meal was 2,693.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139.47 yuan/ton from last week; the difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 657 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,294 yuan/ton from last week; the ratio of soybean meal to rapeseed meal was 1.24, an increase of 0.03 from last week. The ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.93, an increase of 0.1 from last week [132][135][139][142]. - Transaction Situation: As of March 20, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 945,100 tons, an increase of 117,000 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 160,700 tons, a decrease of 73,500 tons from last week [147]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Livestock and Poultry Prices: As of March 26, the price of live pigs (externally - three - way) in Beijing was 9.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/kg from last week; the price of piglets was 21.76 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.6 yuan/kg from last week [151]. - Breeding Profits: As of March 18, the pig - breeding profit was - 415.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 44.96 yuan/head from last week; as of March 20, the poultry - breeding profit was - 0.32 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head from last week [156]. - Feed Production: As of December 2025, the monthly feed production was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [159]. - Livestock Inventory: In February, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%. The inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 37.3205 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57% [164]. 3.6 Options Market - There is only a figure of the historical volatility of at - the - money options of the soybean meal contract in the report, but no specific data analysis is provided [165].