铝类市场周报：供给稳定需求回暖，铝类或将有所支撑-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals show a stable supply and warming demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a state of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of cast aluminum, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [10]. - In the option market, considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [78]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Electrolytic Aluminum: The supply of alumina raw materials is sufficient, the theoretical smelting profit is good, and the production enthusiasm is high. The domestic operating capacity is approaching the "ceiling", and the supply will maintain a stable and slightly increasing trend. With the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, the aluminum processing industry is expected to continue to grow. The inventory accumulation rate has slowed down, and the inventory inflection point is expected to be confirmed. [7] - Alumina: The raw material supply from Guinea is stable, but the ore price remains firm due to shipping pressure, providing cost support. The domestic supply is in a relatively high state, and the demand from domestic electrolytic aluminum production is stable at a high level, while overseas demand may be gradually released, increasing export demand. [8] - Cast Aluminum: The high price of overseas scrap aluminum and freight costs have led to a tight supply of scrap aluminum. The production of cast aluminum plants is restricted by raw material supply and cost pressure. With the arrival of the traditional peak season, the demand in the aluminum alloy consumption field is expected to improve, and there may be restocking demand. [10] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Price Movement: As of March 27, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 23,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% from March 20; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 3,254.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.39% from March 20. The alumina futures price was 2,883 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from March 20. The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 22,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% from March 20. [13][17] - Ratio and Spread: As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.27, a decrease of 0.57 from March 20. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was - 555 yuan/ton, an increase of 530 yuan/ton from March 20; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 71,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,275 yuan/ton from March 20. [14][23] - Inventory and Position: As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 555,917 lots, a decrease of 5.06% from March 20; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 40,656 lots from March 20. [20] - Spot Price: As of March 27, 2026, the average price of alumina in Henan was 2,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72% from March 20; in Shanxi, it was 2,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from March 20; in Guiyang, it was 2,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from March 20. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 24,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% from March 20. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 23,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from March 20, and the spot discount was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week. [27][32] 3. Industry Situation - Inventory: As of March 26, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 423,075 tons, a decrease of 2.23% from March 19; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 454,571 tons, an increase of 0.56% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1,294,000 tons, a decrease of 0.38% from March 19. As of March 27, 2026, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 408,197 tons, an increase of 1.15% from March 20; the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 272,825 tons, a decrease of 0.08% from March 19. [37] - Bauxite: The inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports was 24.23 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons month - on - month. In February 2026, the import volume of bauxite was 16.953 million tons, a decrease of 11.95% month - on - month and an increase of 18.05% year - on - year. From January to February, the import volume of bauxite was 36.2058 million tons, an increase of 18.7% year - on - year. [40] - Scrap Aluminum: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 17,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 350 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 136,323.65 tons, a decrease of 17.09% year - on - year; the export volume was 55.23 tons, a decrease of 15.26% year - on - year. [46] - Alumina: In December 2025, the alumina output was 8.0108 million tons, an increase of 6.7% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative output was 15.18 million tons, an increase of 0.2% year - on - year. In February 2026, the alumina import volume was 1.81 million tons, a decrease of 30.49% month - on - month and an increase of 334.19% year - on - year; the export volume was 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.05% month - on - month and a decrease of 28.57% year - on - year. From January to February, the cumulative alumina import was 441,400 tons, an increase of 468.96% year - on - year. [48][49] - Electrolytic Aluminum: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.874 million tons, an increase of 3% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative output was 7.534 million tons, an increase of 3% year - on - year. In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.916 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 2.12%; the total capacity was 45.402 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 0.51%; the operating rate was 98.93%, an increase of 0.04% from last month and a decrease of 1.56% from the same period last year. In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 201,500 tons, an increase of 0.65% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative import was 390,400 tons, an increase of 7.97% year - on - year; the export volume in February was 10,000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to February was 23,300 tons. The global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 218,200 tons from January to January 2026. [52][56] - Aluminum Products: In December 2025, the aluminum product output was 6.1356 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0%; from January to February, the cumulative output was 9.486 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. In February 2026, the aluminum product import volume was 290,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%; the export volume was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. From January to February, the aluminum product import volume was 600,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; the export volume was 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. [59][60] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: In February 2026, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. The output of recycled aluminum alloy was 270,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.47%. [63] - Aluminum Alloy: In December 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.825 million tons, an increase of 13.7% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative output was 2.765 million tons, an increase of 8.9% year - on - year. In February 2026, the aluminum alloy import volume was 65,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.25%; the export volume was 13,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24%. From January to February, the aluminum alloy import volume was 156,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.46%; the export volume was 37,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.33%. [65][66] - Real Estate: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from last month and a decrease of 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to February 2024, the new housing construction area was 50.839 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.13%; the housing completion area was 63.2042 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99%. [69] - Infrastructure and Automobile: From January to February 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year - on - year. In February 2026, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 1,805,165, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%; the production volume was 1,672,445, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47%. [72] 4. Option Market Analysis - Considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility. [78]