建信期货农产品周度报告-20260327

Report Overview - Report Date: March 27, 2026 [1] - Industry: Agricultural Products - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Oils and Fats: The current oils and fats market is mainly driven by external crude oil. With the ongoing Middle - East conflict supporting oil prices, the demand for biofuel raw materials is boosted, keeping the oils and fats sector at a high level. However, if the macro - situation cools down, prices may correct from high levels due to factors like seasonal palm oil production increases, more imported soybeans, and weak demand. [8] - Corn: The supply of corn in the spot market is increasing as the temperature rises, but the remaining grassroots grain is limited. The demand from the feed and deep - processing industries is improving, and the overall supply - demand pattern may remain tight. Corn futures prices may be mainly range - bound and strong, but the upside space is limited. [88] - Hogs: The supply of hogs remains abundant, and although the demand is slowly recovering, the supply - demand situation is still loose. Spot prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and futures prices of contracts 05/07 are expected to trend weakly. [131] - Cotton: The external cotton market is strong, while the domestic market lacks new driving forces. Short - term prices are range - bound and rising. Attention should be paid to the new cotton planting expectations and actual planting conditions for the 2026/27 season. [137] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oils and Fats - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: The oils and fats market is driven by external crude oil. The Middle - East conflict supports oil prices and biofuel demand. It is recommended to buy at low prices and reduce positions when crude oil surges sharply. If the macro - situation cools down, prices may correct. [8] - Core Points - Domestic Spot Changes: As of March 27, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China increased by 130 yuan/ton weekly, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased by 100 yuan/ton. [10] - Domestic Three - Oils Inventory: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 203.48 million tons, a weekly decrease of 2.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. [20] - Domestic Oilseeds Supply: The soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills decreased slightly, and the import soybean inventory in ports decreased. The crushing rate of imported rapeseed increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. [21][28] - Palm Oil Dynamics: In March 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the export data was strong, supporting the price of palm oil. [34][38] - CFTC Positions: Speculative funds reduced their net long positions in CBOT soybeans for the first time in eight weeks, set a record high in net long positions in Chicago soybean oil, and continued to buy net in the CBOT soybean meal futures market for the eighth consecutive week. [42] 3.2 Corn - Market Review: The national corn price was adjusted narrowly in the range this week. The futures price of the main 2605 contract on the Dalian Exchange fell by 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. [46] - Fundamental Analysis - Corn Supply: The grain - selling progress continued to increase this week, with an overall slowdown compared to the same period last year. The inventory in northern ports increased, and the inventory in southern ports decreased. [49][50][52] - Domestic Substitutes: The wheat market was weak this week, and the price gap between corn and wheat widened. [53] - Imported Substitute Grains: In January - February 2026, the import of grains increased year - on - year, and the import of some grains increased significantly. The import profit of Brazilian corn is high, and the substitution advantage of imported grains still exists. [54] - Feed Demand: From January to February 2026, the national industrial feed output increased year - on - year. The feed demand is expected to continue to increase slightly due to the growth of hog inventory. The average inventory time of feed enterprises increased. [67][73][76] - Deep - processing Demand: The starch production rate and output increased, and the processing profit improved. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased. [80][81] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, the corn planting area, yield, and output in China are expected to increase, the import volume remains unchanged, and the demand is expected to increase. [85] - Outlook and Strategy: The spot price of corn is expected to be mainly range - bound and strong, and the futures price of contracts 2605/07 is expected to be the same, but the upside is limited. Spot enterprises are recommended to replenish inventory on a rolling basis, and futures investors are recommended to hold long - term long positions and reduce positions on rallies. [88][89] 3.3 Hogs - Market Review: This week, the spot price of hogs continued to fall, and the futures price of the main contract LH2605 also declined. The supply was abundant, and the demand was seasonally weak. [90][92] - Fundamental Overview - Long - term Supply: The price of binary sows decreased. The theoretical pig slaughter volume is expected to change based on the inventory of breeding sows, with a slight increase in the first half of the year. [97][98][99] - Medium - term Supply: The price of piglets decreased, and the inventory of piglets decreased slightly. The theoretical pig slaughter volume is expected to change accordingly. [108] - Short - term Supply: The inventory of large hogs increased in February, and the proportion of large hogs over 140 kg decreased. The secondary fattening situation was average. [110][111] - Current Supply: The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in March increased, and the average slaughter weight increased slightly. [114][115] - Import Supply: In January - February 2026, the cumulative import volume of pork decreased year - on - year. [121] - Secondary Fattening Demand: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening weakened, and the cost decreased. [125] - Slaughter Demand: The slaughtering rate of enterprises increased, and it is expected to rise slightly during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. [129][130] - Outlook: The spot price of hogs is expected to be weak and volatile, and the futures price of contracts 05/07 is expected to trend weakly. Futures investors are recommended to hold short positions and reduce positions on dips. Hog - farming enterprises are recommended to hold hedging short positions and reduce positions as they slaughter. [131] 3.4 Cotton - Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions: The external cotton market was strong, and Zhengzhou cotton closed up in a range. The domestic spot cotton basis weakened, and the downstream market was generally trading. The USDA March supply - demand report was bearish, but the market has focused on the 2026/27 season. Attention should be paid to the USDA cotton planting intention survey results. [135][136][137] - Core Points - Main Cotton - Producing Countries: The USDA March supply - demand report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation for the 2025/26 season, increasing the output, trade volume, and ending inventory, and reducing the consumption. [138] - US Cotton Exports: As of the week of March 19, 2025/2026, the net signing and shipment of US cotton increased week - on - week. [145] - Textile Enterprises: As of March 20, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises increased, the yarn inventory decreased, the fabric inventory decreased, and the operating load of yarn and fabric increased. [147] - Basis and Inter - month Spread: As of March 27, 2026, the basis of the cotton 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread both decreased. [158] - CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of March 17, the non - commercial net long positions in US cotton increased. As of March 26, the total number of domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased. [160]