棉花（纱）市场周报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2605) rose with a weekly increase of about 1.18%. The export demand of US cotton is strong, but the domestic market is under pressure from supply, and the consumer end has weak new orders. In the short - term, cotton prices may fluctuate upward [5]. - Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - by - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2605) rose with a weekly increase of about 1.18% [5]. - Market Outlook: In the week ending March 19, 2026, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 202,400 bales, up 3% from the previous week and down 5% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 100,600 bales, up 46% from the previous week and 43% from the average of the previous four weeks. Domestically, the supply is under pressure as foreign cotton continues to arrive at ports, inventory increases, and the market is lightly traded. As of March 26, the inventory at major ports of imported cotton increased by 1.750.09% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 582,000 tons. The consumer end has few new orders, and the de - stocking speed of finished products has slowed. The operating rate in Xinjiang remains stable at over 90%. As of March 26, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 78.5%, down 0.13% from last week. The downstream is in the traditional small peak season, and there is still support from rigid demand. In the short - term, cotton prices may fluctuate upward [5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: The price of the May contract of US cotton rose with a weekly increase of about 2.96%. As of March 17, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 128,445 lots, an increase of 12,453 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,220 lots, a decrease of 24,803 lots from the previous week; the net position was 16,225 lots, an increase of 37,256 lots from last week [11]. - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: In the week ending March 19, 2026, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 202,400 bales, up 3% from the previous week. The international cotton spot price was 78.2 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.15 cents per pound from last week [17]. - Futures Market: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 1.18%, and the price of the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract fell by 0.19%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 181,886 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 923 lots. The number of cotton futures warrants at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 12,434, and that of cotton yarn futures warrants was 222 [20][26][30]. - Spot Market: As of March 27, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,814 yuan per ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 22,280 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,470 yuan per ton; CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 25,040 yuan per ton [38][49]. - Futures - Spot Spread: This week, the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou cotton was - 135 yuan per ton, and the spread between the spot prices of cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,466 yuan per ton. The basis between the price index of cotton 3128B and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was + 1,419 yuan per ton, and the basis between the spot price of cotton yarn C32S and the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract was 845 yuan per ton [35][43]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of March 26, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 14,081 yuan per ton, a decrease of 74 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 13,169 yuan per ton, a decrease of 118 yuan per ton from last week. The import price index of cotton yarn (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,623 yuan per ton; C32S was 22,075 yuan per ton; JC32S was 23,710 yuan per ton [54]. - Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit: As of March 26, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,630 yuan per ton, a decrease of 112 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 3,399 yuan per ton, a decrease of 68 yuan per ton from last week [58]. 3.3. Industry Situation - Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory: As of the end of February 2026, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.477 million tons, a decrease of 5.38% month - on - month and 0.69% year - on - year. At the end of February, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 949,800 tons [63]. - Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume: In February 2026, China's total cotton import volume was about 170,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 44.1%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%. In February 2026, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 30,000 tons month - on - month and an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year [66]. - Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory: As of February 28, 2026, the inventory days of yarn were 21.45 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.09% [70]. - Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume: From January to February 2026, China's textile and garment export volume was 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. Among them, textile exports were 25.57 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%; garment exports were 24.87 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [77]. - Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales: As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative retail sales of garments were 211.25 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 80.87%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of garment retail sales was 10.7%, a month - on - month increase of 282.14% [81]. 3.4. Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of cotton this week is presented in the form of a chart, but specific data is not elaborated [82]. - Stock Market - Xinong Development: Information about the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development is presented in the form of a chart, but specific data is not elaborated [85].