原油成品油早报-20260327

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices continued to rise. The traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz remained low, with only 3 tankers passing through on March 18 and no crude oil tankers. The average daily tanker traffic in the past week was less than 2 vessels, resulting in a de facto paralysis of navigation. Trump threatened to attack and destroy various power plants in Iran if it did not restore the Strait of Hormuz passage within 48 hours. Iran responded that if its power plants were targeted, it would strike energy and oil facilities across the Middle East, leading to a long - term increase in oil prices. The premium of Oman crude oil rose to $60 per barrel, and the spread between Brent and WTI reached the highest level in nearly a decade due to the escalation of the Middle East situation. On March 20, the US approved a 30 - day authorization to conditionally relax sanctions on Iranian oil products. Recently, global floating storage has significantly reduced inventory by an average of 1.8 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs estimated that there are about 131 million barrels of Russian oil and 105 million barrels of Iranian oil at sea, which can offset the supply interruption in the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. In case of a de facto interruption of the strait, the price in the compliant market still faces an upward drive. Attention should be paid to whether Trump will have constructive dialogue with Iran regarding the strait's navigation and geopolitical situation next week. [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Mediators revealed that Iran did not ask the US to suspend strikes on its energy facilities and has not made a final response to the 15 - point plan for ending the war. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities until April 6. Mediators said the possibility of a cease - fire is still low as the tough demands of the US and Iran exceed what the other can accept. Iran has excluded the missile plan from the negotiation starting point and is unwilling to promise to stop uranium enrichment forever. [3] - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said that Netanyahu can only fight for another two weeks. Iran has officially responded to the "15 - point plan", deeming the US negotiation statement as "the third deception". Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy infrastructure to 8 p.m. on April 6, which provides a short - term breathing opportunity for the global energy market. However, the April 6 deadline is a binary catalyst, and the broader geopolitical background remains fragile. [4] 2. Weekly Inventory - In the week of March 20, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.576 million barrels per day to 3.322 million barrels per day [5]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 11,000 barrels to 13.657 million barrels per day in the week of March 20 [5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 6.926 million barrels to 456 million barrels, a 1.54% increase [5]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.678 million barrels per day, a 2.37% increase compared to the same period last year [5]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels in the week of March 20 [5]. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.464 million barrels per day in the week of March 20, a decrease of 730,000 barrels per day from the previous week [6]. 3. Weekly View - Oil prices continued to rise this week. The Strait of Hormuz traffic was low. Trump's threat and Iran's response may lead to a long - term increase in oil prices. Oman crude premium rose, and the Brent - WTI spread reached a near - decade high. The US relaxed sanctions on Iranian oil conditionally. Global floating storage is de - stocking, and the compliant market price may still rise if the strait is interrupted. Attention should be paid to next week's dialogue between Trump and Iran. [7]