股指期货周报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices declined collectively this week, and the four stock - index futures also weakened. Large - cap blue - chip stocks were weaker than small and medium - cap stocks, with CSI 500 being the most resilient. The market was in a macro - data vacuum period and showed wide - range fluctuations due to the changing overseas geopolitical conflict situation. Market trading activity further declined compared to last week [6][98]. - Overseas, Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days and denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran. Iran has organized over a million people for ground combat, and the Iranian situation remains severe with mixed news [98]. - Domestically, in January - February 2026, China's industrial added value above designated size, fixed - asset investment, social retail sales, imports and exports, and inflation data all significantly rebounded compared to the previous period, and the national economy had a good start. From the disclosed 2025 annual reports of listed companies, among the four broad - based indices, except for the Shanghai 50 where the net - profit growth rate accelerated while the revenue growth rate declined, the revenue and net - profit growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all accelerated [98]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The weekly and Friday price changes, and closing prices of four stock - index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) and four spot indices (CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) are presented. For example, IF2606 had a weekly decline of 1.32% and a Friday increase of 0.72%, with a closing price of 4427.4 [9]. 3.2 News Overview - Trump threatened to attack Iranian power plants, and Iran responded with counter - measures, which would lead to a long - term increase in oil prices and was considered a negative factor for the market. The US proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran, which was seen as a positive factor. Iran stated that there was no negotiation with the US and put forward its own 5 - condition cease - fire requirements, a negative factor. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days, a positive factor. Iran organized over a million people for ground combat, a negative factor [12]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data 3.3.1 Domestic and Foreign Indices - Domestic major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. showed different degrees of decline this week. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a weekly decline of 1.09% and a Friday increase of 0.63%, with a closing price of 3913.72. Among foreign indices, the S&P 500 had a weekly decline of 0.45% and a Thursday decline of 1.74%, with a closing price of 6477.16 [15][16]. 3.3.2 Industry Sector Performance - Most industry sectors declined. Non - bank finance, computer and other sectors weakened significantly, while non - ferrous metals, public utilities and other sectors led the gains. Industry main - force funds generally had a net outflow, with significant net outflows in the electronics, computer, and power equipment sectors, and only the building materials and non - ferrous metals sectors had a slight net inflow [19][23]. 3.3.3 SHIBOR Short - term Interest Rate - SHIBOR short - term interest rates declined, indicating a relatively loose overall capital situation [27]. 3.3.4 Other Data - This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 2.161 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted - share unlock was 81.626 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of northbound funds was 1.164626 trillion yuan. The basis of the IF and IC main contracts fluctuated and converged, the basis of the IH main contract fluctuated and widened, and the basis of the IM main contract fluctuated [31][39][42][45][48]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Although the domestic economic fundamentals in February were strong and the disclosed 2025 annual reports of listed companies were generally good, the overseas geopolitical situation remained uncertain. The US frequently signaled to end the war but was repeatedly denied by Iran, adding great uncertainty to the market. Therefore, caution is still needed before the war officially ends [98].