宏观贵金属周报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the macro - environment, including China's economic situation, global central bank policies, and the geopolitical situation of the Iran war, and also conducts in - depth research on the precious metals market. It concludes that the US economy may face recession risks due to the Iran war, and the precious metals market will be affected by factors such as central bank policies and geopolitical risks, with gold prices expected to first decline and then rise, and the gold - silver ratio having further upward space [27][40][53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - China's economic performance: In early 2026, China's economy had a good start. In January - February, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, with manufacturing investment up 3.1% and infrastructure investment up 11.4%, while real estate investment shrank by 11.1%. Social消费品 retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Industrial output increased by 6.3% year - on - year, with mining, manufacturing, and public utilities all showing growth. The real estate market continued to decline, with new construction, completion, sales area, and sales volume all shrinking. International trade improved, with exports increasing by 21.8% year - on - year and the trade surplus increasing by 26.3%. CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI shrank by 0.9% year - on - year [4][5][7][15]. - Financial and fiscal situation: In February, M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and social financing stock increased by 8.2% year - on - year. From January - February, the general fiscal revenue shrank by 1.4% year - on - year, and the general fiscal expenditure increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with the general fiscal deficit rate possibly reaching 10.8% [20]. 3.1.2 Policy - From 2024 to 2025, most central banks globally cut interest rates. By the end of 2025, the net interest - rate cut ratio of global central banks weighted by economic scale reached 86.4%. In 2026, the four major central banks of the US, Europe, China, and Japan increased their total assets, and the broad - money supply of the four major economies increased by 19.8% year - on - year. However, since mid - March, due to concerns about the long - term Iran war and rising inflation, global central bank tightening concerns have suddenly increased. The Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve have all shown tightening stances [21][22][24]. 3.1.3 Geopolitics - The Iran war has a long - term risk. Since 2018, the US has unilaterally withdrawn from the JCPOA and imposed sanctions on Iran. In early 2026, the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran, and Iran counterattacked. As of late March, the situation has been tense, with the US considering various military options, and Iran insisting on ending the war on its own terms. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global energy trade, and the international community has taken some measures to relieve the energy crisis, but the effect is limited. The war may lead to a global economic recession [28][30][37]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - US Treasury yields first declined and then rebounded. The 2 - year and 10 - year yields fell to 3.38% and 3.97% on February 27 and then rebounded to 3.96% and 4.42% respectively. The US dollar index first declined and then rose. It is expected that US Treasury yields will first rise and then fall, and the US dollar index will continue to decline after short - term fluctuations [41][42]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong but with limited appreciation space, with pressure levels at 6.8 and 6.67 [45]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - In the spot market, gold and silver ETF holdings first increased and then decreased. As of March 26, SPDR gold holdings decreased by 4.4% from the peak at the end of February, and SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 7.2% from the peak at the end of January. In CFTC positions, institutions are more optimistic about gold but cautious about silver [46][47]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, gold is in a bull market due to geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system. In the medium - term, gold is also in a bull market due to global central bank easing. In the short - term, gold has undergone a three - wave adjustment since the end of January 2026 and may face further downward pressure before the risk of "high oil prices - rising inflation - central bank tightening" is fully priced in. However, it is expected to strengthen again after the transition from stagflation trading to recession trading. The gold - silver ratio is expected to rise further, with the upper pressure range at 70 - 80 [50][53]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - related Charts - The gold - silver ratio in London and Shanghai has changed. The negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index has weakened, the negative correlation between gold and US Treasury real yields has strengthened, the positive correlation between gold and crude oil has significantly weakened, and the positive correlation between gold and silver has also weakened [54].