建信期货能源化工周报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are highly volatile due to the Middle - East geopolitical situation. The supply is tight, and it is recommended to consider a bull call spread [7]. - The asphalt price is expected to be relatively strong with a certain de - stocking expectation, but short - term long positions are recommended due to large oil price fluctuations [31]. - The pulp market has supply - demand contradictions and is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [58]. 3. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI's opening price was $100.51, closing price was $94.17, with a decline of 4.00%. Brent's opening price was $107.5, closing price was $101.92, with a decline of 2.38%. SC's opening price was 781.0 yuan/barrel, closing price was 740.8 yuan/barrel, with a decline of 4.24% [7]. - The US has adopted a strategy of talking while fighting in the Middle - East. The Strait of Hormuz transportation is interrupted, and many Middle - East oil - producing countries are forced to cut production, with a cumulative reduction of about 800,000 barrels per day. It is recommended to consider a bull call spread [7]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - The US has announced a suspension of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, but continues to increase military deployment in the Middle - East. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked [8]. - After the news of the US - Iran dialogue was released, oil prices fluctuated greatly. Iran denied having any contact with the US [8]. - Many Middle - East oil - producing countries are forced to cut production. The US has lifted some oil sanctions, and IEA member countries are releasing reserves, but the effect on supply is limited [9]. Asphalt 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - For BU2606, the opening price was 4465 yuan/ton, closing price was 4532 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.68%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased [30]. - The cost side supports the asphalt price. The supply is tight, and demand is improving. There is a de - stocking expectation, and short - term long positions are recommended [30][31]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - The cost side is affected by the Middle - East geopolitical situation, and oil prices are volatile but the center is rising. Spot prices of asphalt are rising [32]. - The weekly loss of asphalt devices decreased by 45,000 tons. The overall start - up rate increased by 0.87 percentage points this week, but is expected to decline next week [33]. - The production of asphalt continues to be in a loss state. The demand is expected to be released steadily, and the inventory has decreased slightly [34]. Pulp 3.1. Market Review and Outlook - As of Thursday, the 05 contract of pulp closed at 5156 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from last week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.47%. The prices of imported pulp in the spot market vary [57]. - The supply - demand contradiction in the pulp market still exists, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [58]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - The shipment volume of pulp from major pulp - producing countries in December showed different trends. The global chemical pulp shipment - to - capacity ratio was 97.75% in December [59]. - In February, China's pulp imports decreased. The inventory of pulp in major regions and ports increased in late March [58][62]. - The downstream market has insufficient terminal orders, and there is resistance to price increases of downstream base paper [58].