聚乙烯市场周报-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the polyethylene futures fluctuated widely with oil prices this week. As of the close on March 27, 2026, the L2605 contract closed at 8,868 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from last week's closing price [6]. - On the supply side, multiple plants such as Zhonghan Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Tarim Petrochemical were shut down for maintenance this week. PE production decreased by 4.78% week-on-week to 632,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.83% week-on-week to 76.24% [6]. - On the demand side, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 2.2% week-on-week. Among them, the operating rate of agricultural film increased by 3.4% week-on-week, and the operating rate of packaging film increased by 1.7% week-on-week [6]. - In terms of inventory, the inventory of production enterprises increased by 3.45% week-on-week to 587,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.98% week-on-week to 607,100 tons [6]. - In terms of cost and profit, the cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 1.94% week-on-week to 10,374 yuan/ton, and the oil-based profit increased by 46 yuan/ton to -1,802 yuan/ton; the cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 1.45% week-on-week to 6,637 yuan/ton, and the coal-based profit increased by 19 yuan/ton to 1,849 yuan/ton [6]. - Looking ahead, the PE maintenance plan has increased compared with the previous period, and the industry supply pressure is expected to continue to ease. The downstream peak season continues, but product enterprises make rigid purchases at high raw material prices, and the demand side weakens. The domestic supply and demand are in a stalemate. The inventory is neutral. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East still disturbs oil prices; the supply of raw materials such as ethylene in Asia is difficult to recover in the short term, and the ethylene price is unlikely to fall. Currently, the basis of the 05 contract is neutral. Considering comprehensively, LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the latest developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Technically, L2605 should pay attention to the previous low support around 8,330 and the previous high pressure around 9,520 [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Price: Affected by the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the polyethylene futures fluctuated widely with oil prices this week. As of the close on March 27, 2026, the L2605 contract closed at 8,868 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from last week's closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply - Multiple plants were shut down for maintenance, PE production decreased by 4.78% week-on-week to 632,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.83% week-on-week to 76.24%. Demand - The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 2.2% week-on-week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 3.4% and the packaging film operating rate up 1.7%. Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 3.45% week-on-week to 587,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.98% week-on-week to 607,100 tons. Cost and profit - The cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 1.94% week-on-week to 10,374 yuan/ton, and the oil-based profit increased by 46 yuan/ton to -1,802 yuan/ton; the cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 1.45% week-on-week to 6,637 yuan/ton, and the coal-based profit increased by 19 yuan/ton to 1,849 yuan/ton [6]. - Outlook: The PE maintenance plan has increased, supply pressure is expected to ease. The downstream peak season continues, but demand weakens. The inventory is neutral. The Middle East geopolitical situation disturbs oil prices, and ethylene prices are unlikely to fall. The 05 contract basis is neutral. LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the Middle East geopolitical situation. Technically, L2605 should pay attention to the previous low support around 8,330 and the previous high pressure around 9,520 [6]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - Futures price and trading volume: The L2605 fluctuated widely this week, and the weekly trading volume increased slightly [7]. - Open interest and warehouse receipts: The open interest of the 05 contract decreased week-on-week, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased week-on-week [12]. - Monthly spreads: The 9 - 1 monthly spread increased slightly, the 1 - 5 monthly spread increased slightly, the 5 - 9 monthly spread fluctuated and declined, and the L - PP spread fluctuated and declined [17][24]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - Domestic LLDPE prices ranged from 8,630 to 9,310 yuan, and the CFR China quotation was 1,078 US dollars/ton [29]. - The main basis fluctuated widely [34]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Ethylene price: The RMB price of ethylene increased week-on-week [38]. - Ethylene production and imports: In December, ethylene production increased month-on-month and year-on-year. In January, ethylene imports were 292,200 tons, and in February, ethylene imports were 180,200 tons [41]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Supply: In February, polyethylene production was 2.9059 million tons, a month-on-month decrease. This week, the PE capacity utilization rate decreased week-on-week [46][52]. - Cost and profit: This week, the cost of oil-based LLDPE and coal-based LLDPE increased week-on-week, and the profit of oil-based LLDPE and coal-based LLDPE increased week-on-week. The LLDPE US dollar price increased, and the import profit fluctuated widely [58][64][70]. - Inventory: This week, the inventory increased week-on-week, and the total inventory pressure was not large [76]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Situation - Demand - Downstream prices: The prices of PE downstream products remained stable this week [80]. - Downstream operating rate and plastic product production: The average downstream operating rate increased by 2.2% week-on-week. From January to February 2026, the cumulative production of plastic products increased by 5.20% year-on-year. The operating rate of agricultural film and packaging film increased, and the operating rate of pipes increased. From January to February 2026, the export value of plastic products increased by 25.70% year-on-year [83][88][92]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of polyethylene was reported at 54.76%. The implied volatility of at-the-money call and put options was around 51.52% [95].