餐饮行业未来趋势预测报告（2026-2028）

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the restaurant industry, predicting significant challenges and structural changes due to ongoing price wars driven by delivery platforms [3][4]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that if the current intensity of the price war continues until 2028, approximately 13.18 million restaurants will exit the market, leading to a scenario where an average restaurant can only survive for about one year [3][11]. - The average net profit margin for the industry is expected to drop below 3% by 2028, with small restaurants facing net profits of only 0.33 to 0.56 yuan per order, making it increasingly difficult for them to remain profitable [10][20]. - The competition has led to a significant shift in the pricing structure, with nearly 60% of orders expected to be priced below 15 yuan by 2028, fundamentally altering consumer price expectations and leading to a decline in overall dining expenditure [10][12]. - The report highlights that around 60% of restaurant operators are likely to switch to lower-quality raw materials, raising concerns about food safety and quality across the supply chain [10][25]. - The ongoing price war is characterized as a predatory practice, redistributing profits within the industry and potentially leading to a systemic collapse if not addressed [31][32]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Overview - The report discusses the detrimental effects of aggressive subsidy strategies by delivery platforms, creating a vicious cycle for restaurant operators [3][4]. Section 2: Key Findings - The report identifies that the proportion of low-priced orders is expected to reach 60% by 2028, with a corresponding decline in average consumer spending on dining [10][12]. - It predicts that the average net profit margin for the industry will fall below 3%, severely impacting the viability of small restaurants [20][21]. - The report warns that food safety risks will escalate as many operators resort to cheaper raw materials to survive [25][26]. - It anticipates a massive exit of restaurants, with a projected 1.318 million closures, indicating a shift from growth to a focus on survival [28][29]. Section 3: Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the ongoing price war is not a temporary phase but a structural change that could lead to long-term consequences for the restaurant industry [31][32]. - It highlights the need for regulatory intervention to address the unsustainable practices of price competition and protect the integrity of the industry [33].