大越期货白糖周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, sugar continued to oscillate and slowly rise. With high crude oil prices, sugar production was squeezed, making sugar prices more likely to rise than fall. The overseas sugar market showed a low - point reversal, and a bullish view was maintained [4]. - Datagro predicted a 268 - thousand - ton sugar deficit in the 26/27 crushing season. ISO expected a 1.22 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics expected the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool expected a 156 - thousand - ton global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [4]. - As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average, and the moving averages began to diverge upward. Technically, it showed a trend of moving into a right - side market. The domestic consumption peak season was approaching, and the rising crude oil price increased the price of sugar - made ethanol, indirectly supporting the sugar price. The sugar price advanced three steps and retreated two steps, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The main contract was about to shift to the 09 contract, and a short - long strategy was recommended on intraday pullbacks [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar continued to oscillate and slowly rise. The high crude oil price squeezed sugar production, and the overseas sugar market showed a low - point reversal. Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average, and the moving averages began to diverge upward. The domestic consumption peak season was approaching, and the rising crude oil price increased the price of sugar - made ethanol, indirectly supporting the sugar price [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish factors: The sugar production in Brazil in the 26/27 season may decline, the syrup tariff has increased, the U.S. cola has changed its formula to use sucrose, and the crude oil price has risen [5]. - Bearish factors: The global sugar production has increased, and the import profit window has opened, increasing the import impact [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - In the 25/26 season, as of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - Different institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons' supply and demand are as follows: Datagro predicted a 268 - thousand - ton sugar deficit in the 26/27 crushing season. ISO expected a 1.22 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics expected the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool expected a 156 - thousand - ton global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [4]. - The 25/26 season's supply and demand situation in the past three months' institutional forecasts showed different production, consumption, and surplus predictions from institutions such as the International Sugar Organization, StoneX, Czarnikow, Green Pool, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture [28]. - The sugar production, consumption, import, and other data from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are presented, including sugar - cane and beet - sugar production, import volume, consumption volume, and price ranges [30]. - The import cost of raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) at different dates is provided, including ICE raw sugar closing prices, exchange rates, and costs within and outside the quota [33]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the given content.