大越期货棉花周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices rose slightly with no significant changes in fundamentals. Supported by the short - term consumption peak season, the futures price moved up slowly. - The ICAC predicts that global consumption in the 26/27 season will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be reduced by over 10%. - According to the USDA's March report, the production in the 25/26 season is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. - From January to February, textile and clothing exports were 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. China's cotton imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%; cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. - According to the Ministry of Agriculture's March forecast for the 25/26 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. - The textile exports from January to February were good. With the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April", and the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino - US relations, textile exports are favored. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract, with the upper pressure around 15,700. The center of gravity moves up slowly, and the intraday trading should follow a slightly long - biased and oscillatory strategy [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Prompt No information provided in the report. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (USDA): In the 25/26 season, the total global cotton production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. Among them, China's production is 7.729 million tons, consumption is 8.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 7.917 million tons [9][10][11]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (ICAC): In the 26/27 season, global cotton production is expected to be 24.8 million tons, a 4% decrease year - on - year; consumption is 25 million tons, a 0.7% decrease year - on - year; the ending inventory is 16.6 million tons, a 1% decrease year - on - year [12]. - China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (Ministry of Agriculture): In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [14]. - Likely Positive Factors: The regulation of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is expected to reduce the area by over 10%. Downstream restocking before the Spring Festival, reduction of export tariffs to the US, easing of Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, a large number of new cotton has been listed, and the current period is the traditional consumption off - season [7]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.