大越期货沪铝周报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and declined, with the main contract falling 0.35% and closing at 23,935 yuan/ton on Friday. Under the carbon neutrality policy, long - term production capacity is controlled, domestic real - estate demand is weak, but aluminum replacing copper may bring incremental demand. Middle - East events have disrupted aluminum supply, and the decline of non - ferrous metals has dragged down aluminum prices. The domestic fundamentals are entering the peak season, and later consumption changes should be monitored. Last week, LME inventory was 420,875 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 2,527 tons to 454,571 tons [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and declined. The main contract fell 0.35%, closing at 23,935 yuan/ton on Friday. The decline was due to factors such as long - term production capacity control under carbon neutrality, weak real - estate demand, potential demand from aluminum replacing copper, supply disruptions from Middle - East events, and the drag of non - ferrous metal price declines. The domestic market is entering the peak season, and attention should be paid to consumption changes. LME inventory was 420,875 tons, slightly down from the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 2,527 tons to 454,571 tons [3] 2. Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 2.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The China annual supply - demand balance sheet for aluminum shows that from 2018 - 2024, production, net imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance have all changed. For example, in 2018, production was 36.09 million tons, net imports were 70,300 tons, apparent consumption was 36.1503 million tons, actual consumption was 36.6263 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 476,000 tons. In 2024, production is expected to be 43.1227 million tons, net imports 1.9616 million tons, apparent consumption 45.025 million tons, actual consumption 44.875 million tons, and the supply - demand balance 150,000 tons [11] 3. Market Structure 3.1 Spot - Futures Price Difference - Not provided 3.2 Import Profit - Not provided