大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20260330

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For Coking Coal: The main producing area mines maintain normal production, with sufficient supply. Driven by coke price increases and market demand, the coking coal market is improving, downstream procurement demand is rising, and coal mine inventories are rapidly decreasing. The short - term market will continue to be strong. With downstream复产 and improved terminal product sales, coking coal prices are expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term [2]. - For Coke: Downstream demand provides good support, and coke enterprises' inventories are mostly low. Due to rising coking coal prices, coke enterprises are near the break - even point, and some are holding back supply waiting for price increases. After the first round of coke price increases was accepted by some steel mills, coke prices are expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Imported Coking Coal: On March 27, 2026 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal at different ports are provided. For example, the price of Russian K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port, Jingtang Port, and Rizhao Port is 1400 [8]. - Port Metallurgical Coke: On March 27, 2026 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke of different grades and from different origins are provided. For example, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Lianyungang is 1500 [9]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 258 million tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons from last week [19]. - Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 893 million tons, a decrease of 225 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 56 million tons, an increase of 12 million tons from last week [23]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 820 million tons, a decrease of 18 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 689 million tons, a decrease of 9 million tons from last week [28]. Factors Affecting Prices - Coking Coal - Positive Factors: Rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - Negative Factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - Coke - Positive Factors: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Negative Factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [7].