大越期货纯碱早报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of soda ash is showing a downward trend as enterprise maintenance begins, but the overall supply remains abundant; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory in soda ash factories is at the highest level in the same period in history; the basis shows that the futures price is higher than the spot price; the inventory is increasing and is above the 5 - year average; the main position is net short, but short positions are decreasing. Considering the cost - side boost, soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply is decreasing with enterprise maintenance, but overall supply is still abundant. Downstream float and photovoltaic glass daily melting volume is decreasing, and factory inventory is at a historical high in the same period. Outlook is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1205 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1229 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 24 yuan, indicating that futures are at a premium to the spot. Outlook is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash factory inventory is 185.19 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average. Outlook is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward. Outlook is neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. Outlook is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to cost - side boost, soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influence Factors Summary - Likely to Rise: Downstream float glass cold repair is less, and production is stable; the conflict between the US and Iran boosts market bullish sentiment [4]. - Likely to Fall: The production load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy is increasing, and there is no new maintenance plan, so production is expected to remain high; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, is decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [4]. - Main Logic: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 1225 | 1229 | 0.33% | | Low - end Price of Heavy - quality Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | 1220 | 1205 | - 1.23% | | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | - 5 | - 24 | 380.00% | [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of the north - China ammonia - soda process for heavy - quality soda ash in the current week is - 94.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the east - China co - production process is 135 yuan/ton [14]. 3.6 Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production Capacity - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 81.87% [17]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 77.54 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 40.74 tons, at a historical high [20]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 100.23% [23]. - Soda Ash Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 14.49 tons, and the operating rate is 70.12% [26]. - Photovoltaic Glass: Not detailed in the content 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory is 185.19 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [31]. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Imports (10,000 tons) | Exports (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [32]