农产品早报-20260330

Report Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report - Report Date: March 30, 2026 - Research Team: Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the supply of corn remains tight as the grain sources gradually concentrate on traders, supporting the price. However, the increased supply of policy - based wheat and the expected increase in market circulation may suppress the price. In the long term, attention should be paid to import and domestic auction policies due to the supply gap [3]. - Starch: High prices affect starch sales, causing the price to decline. In the short term, tight raw material supply supports price increases, but weak downstream consumption may suppress the price. In the long term, downstream consumption rhythm and inventory changes are crucial for pricing [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, the fundamentals are slightly stronger with India's lower production estimate and ISO's lower global surplus forecast. Crude oil prices also impact the valuation. Domestically, the market is bullish after the festival, but there is hedging pressure [6]. - Cotton: Low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With expanding textile production, good downstream profits, and favorable consumption policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. A decrease in Xinjiang's planting area makes long - term buying suitable [7]. - Eggs: The slowdown in chicken culling may be due to farmers' active delay. The increase in chick - rearing in 1 - 2 months and positive sentiment in 3 - 4 months slow down capacity reduction. Rising feed costs compress profits, and an inverse spread pattern is considered [10]. - Apples: The apple market is stable, with good - quality goods being the main trading items. The demand in the western region is weak, while the demand for good - quality goods in Shandong is increasing. The sales in the sales area are normal [11]. - Pigs: The weekend pig price rebounded slightly. There is still pressure on near - term production and inventory reduction. The market is affected by high supply, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [11]. 3. Summary by Product Corn/Starch - Price Data: From March 23 to 27, the price in Jinzhou decreased by 10, the base difference decreased by 3, and the starch base difference increased by 10 [2]. - Analysis: Short - term price support comes from tight supply, but wheat supply and increased circulation may suppress the price. Starch price is affected by raw material supply and downstream consumption [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From March 23 to 27, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged, and the base difference decreased by 1 [4][5]. - Analysis: Internationally, the fundamentals are stronger, and crude oil affects the valuation. Domestically, there is hedging pressure [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From March 23 to 27, the price of 3128 cotton increased, and the import profit and 32S spinning profit decreased [7]. - Analysis: Low initial inventory and good demand prospects make long - term buying suitable [7]. Eggs - Price Data: From March 23 to 27, the prices in various producing areas increased, and the base difference increased by 209 [9]. - Analysis: Slow culling, increased chick - rearing, and rising feed costs affect the market, with an inverse spread pattern considered [10]. Apples - Price Data: From March 23 to 27, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national, Shandong, and Shaanxi inventories decreased [11]. - Analysis: The market is stable, with different situations in different regions [11]. Pigs - Price Data: From March 23 to 27, the prices in various producing areas decreased, and the base difference decreased by 230 [11]. - Analysis: There is short - term price rebound, but long - term pressure from high supply, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [11].