集运早报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The 04 contract has entered the delivery logic, with a neutral valuation. The market is concerned about subsequent shipping company quotes and geopolitical situations, and its trend is expected to follow the spot quotes [2]. - The 06 contract has become the main contract. It is recommended to wait and see because it is greatly affected by geopolitical news and shipping company behaviors, and its valuation is difficult to anchor [2]. - Geopolitical risks remain and are difficult to predict. It is recommended to observe opportunities arising from the deviation of the monthly spread, but attention should be paid to the current poor liquidity of the EC [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Analysis - The 04 contract is in the delivery logic with a neutral valuation, and its trend follows spot quotes [2]. - The 06 contract is the main contract, affected by geopolitical news and shipping company actions, with difficult - to - anchor valuation, so it's advisable to wait and see [2]. - Observe opportunities from monthly spread deviation, but note the poor EC liquidity [2]. European Line Spot Situation - In Week 13, MSK's offer was flat at $2250, PA offered $2400 - 2500, and some voyages were $2200 (large - volume orders at $2000). The spot average converted to the futures price was about 1700 - 1800 points. The price increase in April failed [3]. - In Week 14, the average offer was $2570, converting to 1800 points on the futures [3]. - In Week 15, Maersk's offer was $2350 (down $300 from the previous week), PA's offer remained the same, and OA and MSC had not fully reported their prices [3]. Relevant News - On March 28, Iran agreed to release 20 more Pakistani vessels. Two LPG tankers bound for India passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Malaysia said Iran allowed its stranded tankers to pass. Thailand reached an agreement with Iran on the passage of its tankers through the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - On March 29, the US and Israel attacked an Iranian dock near the Strait of Hormuz, causing 5 deaths and 4 injuries. The Israeli military spokesman said the Yemeni Houthi rebels launched missiles at Israel and joined the Iran war, and Israel would respond [4]. - On March 30, Trump said indirect negotiations with Iran were progressing smoothly, and an agreement was expected to be reached soon. The Wall Street Journal reported that US officials said Trump was considering military action against Iran but had not made a decision [4]. EC Contract Price and Index Data - For EC2604, the closing price was 1735.0, down 2.05% (-1468), with a trading volume of 9616 and an open interest of 9262, a change of -2.48% (-25) [6]. - For EC2605, the closing price was 1992.9, down 299.6, with a trading volume of 944 and an open interest of 1822, a change of -1.34% (322) [6]. - For EC2606, the closing price was 2385.0, down 691.7, with a trading volume of 11021 and an open interest of 14153, a change of -0.23% (56) [6]. - For EC2607, the closing price was 2529.4, down 836.1, with a trading volume of 338 and an open interest of 1044, a change of -0.39% (-155) [6]. - For EC2608, the closing price was 2403.0, down 709.7, with a trading volume of 809 and an open interest of 2642, a change of 0.81% (4) [6]. - For EC2609, the closing price was 1710.6, with a trading volume of 493 and an open interest of -3, a change of 1.14% (-29) [6]. - For EC2610, the closing price was 1595.2, up 98.1, with a trading volume of 1148 and an open interest of 7164, a change of 0.73% (0) [6]. - For EC2612, the closing price was 1762.7, down 69.4, with a trading volume of 25 and an open interest of 501 [6]. - For the monthly spread EC2604 - 2606, the current value was -650.0, with a day - on - day change of -4.1 and a week - on - week change of 85.5 [6]. - For the monthly spread EC2604 - 2605, the current value was 14.3, with a day - on - day change of -257.9 and a week - on - week change of -272.2 [6]. - For the monthly spread EC2606 - 2610, the current value was -50.3, with a day - on - day change of 789.8 and a week - on - week change of 840.1 [6]. - The SCFIS (European line) index on March 23, 2026, was 1545.46, up 8.79% from the previous period [6]. - The SCFI (European line) on March 20, 2026, was 1636, up 1.11% from the previous period [6].